The biggest free agent in this year’s class—in every sense of the word—is Aaron Judge. The Yankees tried to ensure this day never arrived, offering Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension before Opening Day, which Judge ultimately declined. That decision represented a nine-figure gamble on himself, and, after a season for the ages, is set to pay off in a massive way.
To assemble a list of every team interested in signing Judge this winter would be to write down the names of all 30. Of course, Judge would “fit” in anywhere, because he’s Aaron Judge, the best hitter in the league last year by a considerable margin. But given how much it will command to sign him, the number of teams who could feasibly be in a position to successfully recruit him is relatively small. So let’s take a look at five clubs who are feasible landing spots for the superstar slugger.
5. Cubs
The Cubs don’t appear to be entering another contention window after posting back-to-back losing seasons. But from a financial standpoint, few are in a better position to make the type of commitment it would take to land Judge. Jason Heyward’s ill-fated contract expires after next season, and the only Cubs with guaranteed salaries beyond 2023 are Marcus Stroman (signed through ‘24), Seiya Suzuki (‘26) and David Bote (‘24, with club options in ‘25 and ‘26). That leaves open the possibility of taking a long-term plunge that most teams are tentative to take.
Would Judge actually consider signing with a non-contending (at least, at the moment) squad? Perhaps not. Jed Hoyer and Co. will need to pitch Judge on their vision for the immediate and long-term future, with plenty of other roster holes to fill. Judge would certainly help kickstart the rebuilding process onto the fast track, but this remains an uphill battle as far as potential outcomes go.
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4. Dodgers
With their perpetual winning ways and seemingly endless pockets, the Dodgers will seemingly in perpetuity be linked to the highest-profile free agent available each offseason. Los Angeles already has Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts under contract through 2027 and ‘32, respectively, and perhaps would be reluctant to add another long-term commitment to the pile.
Trea Turner and David Price’s contracts coming off the books will clear up some salary. The Dodgers could open up some more money—and a spot in center field—by non-tendering Cody Bellinger, who was not quite as bad as he was in 2021 this year but still looked far removed from his old MVP form. Shifting Betts from right field to second base would enable Judge to slot into the outfield. The Dodgers have options, funds and an unmatched desire to win, but perhaps the need to make a splashy move in the form of adding Judge won’t rise to the level where the team actually decides to dive in with both feet.
3. Mets
Here’s an exciting outcome that would keep Judge in the Big Apple. The Mets had the highest payroll in baseball this year and just committed nine figures to retain their All-Star closer. What would be sweeter than stealing your rival’s best player and adding the best hitter in baseball to a 101-win team? Judge is obviously comfortable in New York, and the Mets would presumably remain all-in on contending for a World Series title for the duration of his contract.
One thing that could spur this into a stronger possibility is if Jacob deGrom signs elsewhere before Judge makes his decision. If GM Billy Eppler misses out on keeping his ace, perhaps the sense of urgency to make a headline-grabbing move will ratchet up and owner Steve Cohen will apply pressure to do something drastic. Brandon Nimmo is also a free agent, and Judge and right fielder Starling Marte could adequately split center field duties if the 6’7” slugger decided to make the move to Queens. Though this isn’t the most likely result of the Judge sweepstakes, it certainly would generate the most buzz.
2. Giants
It feels like there’s a serious gulf between the top two landing spots and the other 28 teams. The appeal of the Giants is simple: Judge is from northern California, his parents and in-laws still live there, and the Giants are very interested in getting back to winning as quickly as possible. The team has reportedly made it a priority to get Judge back to the Bay Area, and have resolved not to be outbid by any competitors. Certainly this is music to Judge’s (and his agent’s) ears.
After surprising everybody with a 107-win campaign in 2021, the Giants brought the band back for one more ride in ‘22 and regressed mightily, finishing the year at 81–81. The veteran core of the roster is aging, but the team has just $18.5 million on the books beyond the ‘23 season. Judge would not be joining a team ready-made for the postseason, but perhaps the lure of coming home and, if the reports are to be believed, the best financial offer on the table would be enough to get a deal done.
1. Yankees
Can you really imagine Judge wearing any other uniform? Judge has been outspoken about his love for New York and the Yankees organization, and the team in turn has made no secret that it desperately wants him back. He’s the unquestioned face of one of the most recognizable sports franchises in the world, and one that wins as consistently (at least in the regular season) as any other in the game. As much mutual love as there is, don’t expect the Yankees to be able to bring Judge back on any sort of reunion discount. Judge knows what he’s worth, which is why he’s on the open market in the first place. After all he did for the Yankees last year, here’s betting that they do what’s needed to keep him in pinstripes for the rest of his career.
