For the first week of byes in play, we have a couple fewer games to choose from, but we’re going to draw a line in the sand.
As usual, this week’s picks include one Over bet and one Under bet. But there are a slew of games in which the road team is favored … we’re picking three of them to win and cover in hostile environments.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Take Green Bay Packers and lay 7.5 points (-105) vs. New York Jets
The Packers have played a lot of close games, which makes this point spread a little higher than many would think they would have. The Jets are 2-0 on the road this season, but when the Jets lose, they tend to lose big. Both of their losses have come by 15 points – 24-9 against the Ravens and 27-12 against the Bengals. The Packers, still stinging from their collapse against the Giants in London last week, will look to get ahead early and keep a foot on the gas to prevent another potential come-from-ahead loss.
4
Take Arizona Cardinals and lay 2.5 points (-115) vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have the worst-ranked defense in the league and have allowed 430 yards and 30.8 points a game. Like Seattle, the Cardinals are 2-3, but it should be noted that Arizona’s three losses have come against the Chiefs, Rams and Eagles. It’s hard to imagine that Seattle’s defense is going to make a dramatic turnaround, and the Cardinals should be able to control the pace and tempo of the game. Giving away 2.5 points is a small price to pay to head to pay window.
3
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts: Take the Under of 42.5 points (-112)
The Colts haven’t scored more than 20 points in any game this season, including a 24-0 loss to the Jaguars in Week 2. The Jaguars defense has allowed 13 or fewer points in three of the last four games, which makes the 42.5 point Over/Under a little higher than it should be. Both teams are going to look to run the ball and control the pace of play. This one should feature as many or more field goals than touchdowns, which lends itself to hitting the Under.
2
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Take the Over of 54.5 points (-105)
Last week, the Chiefs were at home against the Raiders with a huge Over/Under (50.5 points). Hitting the Over was never in doubt, as the teams combined for 30 points at halftime and finished with 59 points. The Chiefs and Bills are both capable of scoring 30 points and, if one of them gets a lead, there is little reason to think they will suddenly play ball control and try to run. Kick back and enjoy this one. It could well be a 34-31 slugfest.
1
Take San Francisco 49ers and lay 5.5 points (-108) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have played in close games with their wins coming by totals of four and three points and their losses coming by one, four and six points. However, the 49ers dominate when they impose their style of pounding the ball on the ground, passing to provide balance, and playing strong defense. The 49ers wins have come by 20, 15 and 22 points. The Falcons defense is vulnerable to the strengths of the 49ers’ physical style of offense and another double-digit win is likely for the 49ers, who are establishing themselves as the front-runner to win the NFC West.
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