As has come to be expected, we have a mixed bag of picks on the last week when fantasy rosters include players from 32 teams – make sure to set your roster back a player or two before you get up on Sundays.
I always look for a moneyline pick, and we have one this week – along with three playoff-team beatdowns of three non-playoff teams and a primetime game where fireworks can be expected.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Take Cleveland Browns on the moneyline vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-115)
Most weeks I look for an underdog I believe has a really good chance to win. The Browns have played a lot of close games and have dominated time of possession (35:38 to 24:22, on average). Opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry against the Chargers defense but haven’t exploited it like Cleveland is capable of doing.
People seem to anoint the Chargers as the next big thing, but I haven’t seen the proof laid out over time. I tend to let a team’s record do its talking. I don’t give them props to be able to travel east for an early-window game and claim to be the big dawg in the yard in a loud stadium against a team with a solid defense.
Take Green Bay Packers and lay 8.5 points vs. New York Giants (-112)
I believe the Giants are a fraudulent 3-1. They’ve earned that record by containing QBs Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields – none of whom I would want as the quarterback on my team. Aaron Rodgers is another story.
The Packers are “at home” in London, facing a team that I would compare to the Chicago Bears – which Green Bay blew out 27-10 in Week 2. I can see a similar outcome here. If Green Bay gets ahead early and forces Daniel Jones to win through the air, the blowout will get worse.
Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lay 9.5 points vs. Atlanta Falcons (-110)
The Buccaneers have lost two in a row to the Packers and Chiefs. Tom Brady doesn’t lose three straight. He has a long history of not doing that. He’s going against a Falcons squad Brady has owned, dating back to his incredible Super Bowl comeback. In more recent and applicable vintage, he’s 4-0 as a Buccaneer against the Falcons, and Tampa Bay has won the last three games by margins of 13, 23 and 17 points.
Having to lay 9.5 points is never easy to do for those who know how NFL docudramas work, but the Bucs have consistently covered and surpassed the daunting number in front of them.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Take the OVER at 50.5 points (-115)
In the last five games the Chiefs have played against the Raiders, Kansas City has scored 49, 41, 35, 32 and 40 points. While the Raiders haven’t been able to keep pace in most of them, the point totals in the last four meetings have been 57, 55, 66 and 62.
The Vegas offense is more dynamic with Davante Adams, so the Raiders will likely try to play uptempo with the Chiefs instead of trying to slow them down. That will play right into Patrick Mahomes’ strengths, and I view 50.5 points as not being enough for these two on this night.
Take San Francisco 49ers and lay 6.5 points vs. Carolina (-103)
The 49ers play a style that a lot of teams find very difficult to match up against, especially if they rarely play and face a similar offense and defense. San Francisco has allowed just nine points in the first half of games all season and, in the last three games, have outscored opponents 61-27.
Carolina has the worst time of possession disparity in the league (24:18 to 35:42). That’s a death blow against a team like San Francisco that specializes in 10-play drives where seven or eight of the plays are runs. Baker Mayfield will have to press the issue, and he routinely collapses when forced into that situation. I believe the Niners win by double digits.
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