Last week was the last week of the second quarter and the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) ended basically flat on the week. The first half of the year is a different story though, the SPY is up over 14%.
This week we have a lot of things to keep an eye on. Earnings season is starting back up, there is a Holiday in the US on Thursday, and finally, there are several pieces of high-profile news to watch out for. Earnings most likely will not be a large factor this week given the lower profile names reporting.
Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.
US Holiday
Next Thursday is Independence Day and this often bleeds into the day before and the day after as larger traders take some time to enjoy the holiday. As a result, this could lead to lower liquidity and some increased volatility if news comes out. There is also the possibility that this lack of volume creates smaller trading ranges.
ISM PMI’s
Monday and Wednesday the ISM manufacturing and services PMI are due out respectively. Given the positive inflation data that came out last week, if we see either a meeting of expectations or industry expansion in either of these releases we could see the market rally. If we miss we could see the market start to get soft on weak economic data. Both of these releases are out at 10 am so they have the ability to affect those actively trading.
JOLTS Job Openings
Job openings are a fairly standard way to measure the strength of the economy. Given that the robustness of the economy was one of the reasons given for keeping rates higher for longer, if JOLTS comes in softer than expected we could see the market start to sell on a tightening labor market. If JOLTS is a match or a beat, we could see the market start to rally off the fact that the labor market is starting to loosen up.
FED News
There are two potential market movers coming out of the Fed this week. First is Tuesday morning when Fed Chair Powell is speaking at an ECB panel on central banking. Rate-specific conversations are not expected, but it's a policy panel, and any time Powell speaks on policy he has the ability to move the markets.
The second event of the week is out Wednesday at 2 pm Eastern and that is the FOMC meeting minutes. These releases usually produce short-lived volatility as the market tries to digest what went into the previous rate decision.
Non-farm payrolls and Employment data
To end the week there is a lot of employment data due on Friday. The largest of the releases is Non-Farm employment change (payrolls) which is used as a show of strength or weakness in the jobs market. One thing to watch on this in addition to the topline number is how the previous month's numbers are adjusted.
In addition to Non-Farm payrolls are the Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. These give a more holistic view of how the economy is going and how consumers and workers are keeping up with the rising cost of living. While it would be difficult to say which report moves the markets, combined you could see some volatility.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
