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Simon Thomas & Matthew Southcombe & Mark Orders & Ben James

Wales v Scotland exact scoreline predicted as rugby writers split on tight Six Nations clash

It's crunch time for Wales as Wayne Pivac's defending Six Nations champions simply have to beat Scotland to possess any chance of retaining their crown.

History favours Wales, with the Scots having not won in Cardiff for fully two decades.

So do Wales bounce back to winning ways after their Ireland horror show - or is this the year that Scottish hoodoo is finally broken?

Our rugby experts assess the 80 minutes ahead and predict what's in store at the Principality Stadium.

Matt Southcombe: Wales to win

Hope more than expectation? Possibly, but let me try to convince you.

Look, we've been here before with this Wales side. They get smacked on the opening weekend, Welsh rugby goes into meltdown and they bounce back the following week.

I'm being a little bit flippant there but this ain't the first time we've seen this movie.

That being said, Wales are without the safety blanket of some of their biggest stars and that is relevant. It means the ones who do remain - Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams, Ross Moriarty, Taine Basham to name the key ones - must fire on all cylinders.

So much is going to be placed on their shoulders. There's an edge about Wales this week and a determination to put things right.

There must be a vast improvement in terms of how they attempt to win the gain line. If they lose out there for a second week running, it'll be a grim afternoon.

But if they start to get momentum up front, then we might actually see this backline create some problems.

The scrum went well last week and the lineout needs to be tweaked. But Wales reversing their fortunes this week is not beyond the realms of possibility.

If they keep Hamish Watson quiet and win the gain line, Wales can do it.

Wales 23-17 Scotland

Mark Orders: Scotland to get the job done

It doesn’t take long for the Scots to ratchet up their confidence levels.

Rewind a long way back to 1978 and a good qualifying campaign led to predictions north of Hadrian’s Wall — and an infamously hubristic song as well — that Ally Macloed and his players were going to win football’s World Cup.

It didn’t happen.

Indeed, Macleod's men ended up racing the postcards home after a defeat to Peru and a draw to Iran saw them bundled out at the pool stage.

Even last year at the rugby Scottish self-belief quickly soared after a win over England at Twickenham. The following weekend they lost at home to Wales.

So what will it be this time?

Wales are in difficult straits, missing countless experienced players and coming off the back of a deflating beating by Ireland in Dublin, when they lost the collisions, the lineouts, the scrums, the battle for quick ruck ball— pretty much everything there was to lose, Wales lost it.

Maybe it was a mild surprise they didn’t lose their way en route to the Aviva Stadium.

Meantime, Scotland were beating England at Murrayfield.

But another day, another dawn.

Wales have drafted Jac Morgan and Ross Moriarty into their back row, two players who will make a difference, while Owen Watkin should stiffen the midfield defence and Alex Cuthbert has size and experience.

There is also the Cardiff factor. Scotland haven’t won in the Welsh capital for 20 years and it’s almost a cliche to suggest the home crowd can be worth a huge amount to players in red.

But Gregor Townsend has picked an impressive side who didn’t lose a lineout against England, missed only eight tackles and were able to find a way to victory despite winning only 46 percent of the possession and 38 percent of the territory, with Steve Tandy clearly delivering in spades as defence coach.

Townsend has swapped his entire front row with the aim being to keep scrum pressure on Wales for the entire 80 minutes.

The question is whether Pivac’s side will be able to not just hold Scotland but impose themselves. They failed utterly to do that against Ireland, but Andy Farrell’s team are a cut above right now.

Wales will need to be 100 percent better in the front five and they will have to be vigilant behind, where the opposition have any number of threats. Above all, they need to win the collisions and generate quick ruck ball. Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt if they watched their discipline.

It could be tighter than many expect and the expectation is there will be a reaction from Wales, but it’s still hard to look beyond the visitors. With momentum and a strong side against opponents who are struggling, they ought to get the job done.

Wales 19-23 Scotland

Ben James: It'll be nip and tuck to the end

First things first, Wales won't be as bad as they were last weekend. Quite simply, they can't be.

Egos as bruised as bodies, there'll be a response from Wayne Pivac's side.

But will it be enough to see off a Scotland team who just wrapped up their first back-to-back Calcutta Cup triumph?

Unfortunately, I'm just not sure it will be.

Wales will have to be markedly better at the breakdown and will need to find some way of winning collisions. It's not made any easier by what they're missing in terms of personnel.

For the first time in a long, long time, Scotland travel down to Wales feeling like they actually deserve the hype being bestowed upon them.

Logic just about says that it should be Scotland celebrating on Saturday night, although I expect it to be nip and tuck.

Wales 16-18 Scotland

Simon Thomas: Even Morgan presence won't be enough

First things first, the forecast is for rain during the match and the stadium roof will be open due to Covid considerations, so we are looking at wet weather rugby.

That means the set-piece and carrying power will be crucial, so it could well be a tough day at the Cardiff office for beleaguered Wales.

Their lineout wobbled against Ireland and they now have one less genuine target there, with the athletic Aaron Wainwright benched, while Scotland have an array of leapers to contest opposition ball in Gray, Gilchrist and Skinner.

Gregor Townsend's team were a perfect 16 out of 16 on their own lineout last week, while they also pinched two of England's throws, so that's a real area of strength for them.

As for the scrum, the visitors have two lumps of South African stock in the sizeable shape of Nel and Schoeman, with two Lions props to come off the bench in Sutherland and Zander Fagerson, so the challenge will be unrelenting there.

They also pack plenty of ball-carrying clout via the likes of Matt Fagerson, Hamish Watson, McInally, Van der Merwe and the explosive Tuipulotu, giving them the ability to plough forward right across the pitch, with the fleet-footed Hogg and Graham offering further line-breaking potential as the mercurial Russell pulls the strings.

A tally of 17 England defenders beaten at Murrayfield last Saturday demonstrates just what the Scots are capable of in possession, while they only missed eight tackles.

Given the conditions and the side they have selected, you can expect Wales to kick a lot and try and apply pressure, with debutant Jac Morgan giving them additional presence over the ball.

But you just feel the forward oomph of the Scots and their greater threat behind will see them through to a first victory in Cardiff since 2002, as they end their drought in the rain.

Wales 14-20 Scotland

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