The most dangerous thing to do at this moment in time would be to write this lot off. Premier League champions for four straight seasons. Treble winners 18 months ago. The most expensively-assembled team in the history of soccer. Filled with born winners, the world's most prolific center forward, the Ballon d'Or holder and the greatest creative midfielder of his generation. And Manchester City is, of course, led by one of the greatest coaches in history. Five points off the lead after 11 matches is nothing in comparison to what it's made up before, so of course you wouldn't write the club off.
Or ... would you? Calling tops are never easy or popular but there are a growing amount of reasons to suggest this time is actually different. City has held a stranglehold over the English game the last seven seasons, missing out on only one league title to Liverpool since becoming the first team to hit 100 points in 2017–18. Title races have felt inevitable and City has sucked the drama out of what was once before known as the most exciting league in the world, much to the team's credit. Soccer robots in an era of AI.
But keeping this up has been becoming increasingly difficult with each passing year, with Arsenal finishing a close second in May and Liverpool setting the pace this time around (City is due to visit Anfield on Dec. 1 in a match it dares not lose). City has shown its imperfect human side of late, losing four in a row in all competitions for the first time under Pep Guardiola. The other side in Manchester is usually the one that does that, not City.
City boasts a squad of multiple-time league winners and deals with the pressure better than most, but the average age of players used so far this campaign is 26.9 years, the fourth-oldest in the league. Soccer and its modern demands make this a young person's game that older heads have to adapt to, or are eaten up by. Kevin De Bruyne's absence has been significantly felt, missing five games with a hamstring injury and managing only 16 league minutes since mid-September. De Bruyne is so often the difference-maker, but missed the first half of last season with another hamstring problem. As injuries mount and age catches up, sustained positive impact becomes more difficult. The Belgian has been one of the most vocal footballers to speak out against the ever-increasing volume of matches.
There is a noticeable decline in Kyle Walker's game for club and country in 2024. Seen as a pain-point in England's failure to win the final of the European championship last summer, City's Premier League opponents have also noticed this once impossible-to-pass right back—the best in league history, by the way—is a weakness to exploit. And the Manchester City of yesteryear wouldn't have re-signed İlkay Gündoğan, a now-34-year-old club legend on a free transfer, to a one-year deal to plug a gap in midfield. They'd have signed the most promising player in the world in his position 10 years Gündoğan's junior if this was still a regenerative long-haul project. Ederson, Mateo Kovačić, John Stones and Bernardo Silva, along with De Bruyne and Walker, have all crossed 30 and they'll be joined by Manuel Akanji, Jack Grealish and Nathan Aké in 2025. The team, while it has a small core of players to take them into the next generation, is aging. The new wave is not the dominant one, talented though it may be.
Rodri was the glue that held it all together, and any team would miss him. The Spaniard turned up to collect his Ballon d'Or late in October on crutches after suffering a season-ending injury in the draw with Arsenal. And a team looking gradually easier to exploit on transition in each of the last three seasons now has a glaring weakness within it. There is nobody like Rodri in world football and without him, the floodgates have opened.
Their goals conceded per game in the Premier League has been growing year-on-year since 2021–22, from 0.68 through 0.87 and 0.89. It's rocketed to 1.18 in 11 league games this term, and in all competitions, City has conceded the most shots (26) from fast breaks in '24–25 from teams in the English top tier. Rodri was the king of the tactical foul, stemming counter attacks at source. Add his absence to a less effective press from the front, with an aging team that has spent years sweeping every trophy before it, and exploitations become easier. Manchester United's new manager found that out in the Champions League last week.
City is still the Premier League's top scorers, boasting the division's leading marksman in Erling Haaland, but the squad's highest scorers behind him are Kovačić and defender Joško Gvardiol, on three each. City decided in the summer it was better to take the money on the quietly prolific Julián Alvarez, sold to Atlético Madrid in a deal worth around $104 million. Then, they decided not to directly replace him. The Manchester City of old would have found an incredible value-for-money gem who slotted in straight away, much like Alvarez did before he was flipped for huge profit. Savinho has been an incredible find of that ilk—albeit from the City Football Group—but looks to be a Riyad Mahrez regen rather than Haaland's fall-back. You wouldn't bet against Haaland shouldering the burden effectively, but stopping supply is the best way to stop Haaland. City need De Bruyne to stay fit.
There are on-field signs that this might be the year to take advantage of a Manchester City dropoff. But the more significant story is being told behind the scenes. Manchester City is riddled with uncertainty.
Txiki Begiristain, long-serving director of football and in place since October 2012, announced in October that he would leave City at the end of the current season. A close friend of Guardiola, he is credited as the key to bringing the all-conquering manager to City, and as the story goes, Pep was who he wanted all along. They waited years to get the right man and have played a blinder.
Guardiola joined in 2016 and has won it all. The biggest question asked about dominant champions is how they manage to keep going each year, renewing that hunger to come back and do it again. Guardiola has admitted on multiple occasions he doesn't know what he's going to do this time around, with a contract up on June 30 and the person integral to him joining already deciding to leave. Hugo Viana of Sporting Lisbon will replace Begiristain but with new starts come natural conclusions. The sporting director-head coach double axis taken from Barcelona by City will not be possible this time around, with Rúben Amorim heading to United despite being lined up for City in the event Guardiola decided to follow Begiristain.
Uncertainty over a manager and the end of a sporting director can signal much in a club's transfer strategy and explain short-term measures over new players. But there is an ongoing case being discussed in court which looms over City, awaiting resolution.
As it stands, soccer still waits for the verdict on each of the 115 charges brought from the Premier League to Manchester City for allegedly failing to provide accurate financial information. This will be the season that a definitive answer is brought. Potential outcomes range from not guilty to relegation, while City has denied all wrongdoing. But uncertainty does not come greater than that.
Whatever happens, the end of Manchester City's era of dominating English soccer may be in sight. Guardiola will not emulate Sir Alex Ferguson in days managed and it's nigh-on impossible to expect any manager after him to hit the same heights. A rebuild is coming for this club, regardless of who oversees it and whichever state it finds itself in. Perfect or damaged. Potent or porous. Many have wrote them off before and been wrong. But do it today and you've got a stronger chance of being right than ever before.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The End of Manchester City's Era of Dominance Is Within Sight.
