What happened at the end of the Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks game on Tuesday was a travesty, one that ought to serve as a cautionary tale for years to come … or at least until the end of this NBA season.
I’m not talking about a coach leaving a star player in for far too long after a game is out reach, or a heated exchange because of a flashy dunk well after the game has been decided. No, what I’m talking about is way worse — though in the same family of offenses — especially for bettors.
I’m talking about teams exchanging dumb meaningless baskets once a game is clearly over, no purpose being served other than to drive up the score and pad numbers. These are artificial statistics. They shouldn’t exist.
And yet, these artificial stats have burned plenty a bettor—including myself last night after taking the under on a 226.5 total for Hawks-Knicks.
Brutal beat on this one with Taj Gibson fouling down 6 with 10 seconds to go, Trae hitting 2 FTs and then an RJ Barrett layup to kill the under. Ugh….I had 227 and 226.5 was available most of the day even tho 225.5 was printed in the article. Blah……. https://t.co/af7OCqPHvx
— Raheem Palmer (@iamrahstradamus) March 23, 2022
It was a good bet. These teams had combined for six unders in their last seven games combined. And Tuesday’s game was trending in that direction as well.
The Hawks held a 113-105 (218 points) lead with a little over 30 seconds left, comfortable enough to smell victory but not enough to celebrate. However, one competent defensive possession would wrap it for good. Instead, they let Immanuel Quickley take the next inbound coast-to-coast unguarded for a layup to make it 113-107 (220).
OK, whatever. He was full steam ahead. New York didn’t want to risk a foul and-1. I get it. Just knock down these free throws after the Knicks intentionally foul, and get the next stop.
Kevin Huerter made two free throws to bring the score to 115-107 (222) with 22 seconds left. The stop, however, never came. Quickley got into the lane for another easy layup to make it 115-109 (224) with 10 seconds left. This is where I really got annoyed.
If you’re the Knicks, either get a steal on the inbound or concede defeat. But what you’re not going to do is foul again, get two missed free throws, hit a three, foul once more, get two more missed free throws and hit another three all within 10 seconds with one timeout.
Apparently the Knicks disagreed with that logic and felt the need to foul with what was now down to 7.4 seconds left. Trae Young hit both free throws to bring the score to 117-109 (226), and at this point I’m absolutely beside myself because I already know what’s coming. You guessed it: another free lane to the basket for the Knicks, this time R.J. Barrett coast-to-coast for an uncontested dunk all over us under bettors just before time expired.
The O/U in the Knicks vs. Hawks game was 226.5
R.J. Barrett's uncontested dunk in the final seconds makes the final total 228.
Under 226.5 ❌pic.twitter.com/kZYxv3Tjja
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) March 23, 2022
Now, of course, this works the other way too. More than a few bettors have won because of these late-game shenanigans, gaining a last second cover on their overs. There were even a few last night, thankful for how this game ended. According to Action Network, 42 percent of point total bets were placed on the under—though 89% of the money wagered was also backing the under.
I’m sure I’ve won a bet with garbage time points more than few times.
But you know what? Those stats don’t count either. I mean, yeah, duh, cash me out. But those wins are just as fraudulent as the stats that helped make them possible. There’s no pride to be had in an incorrect prediction that turns out right.
But these are the breaks in betting point totals. The best safeguard against having your bet wrecked by inconsiderate stat padders is to build a cushion into your prediction. And if the line still falls too close to that number, just avoid it altogether. Otherwise, you’re probably going to get burned by a bad beat.
