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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Eric Garcia

The economy was always Trump’s strength. Polls show it might be cracking

A series of polls released over the weekend revealed that approval of the Democratic Party is at a historic low. One poll conducted by CNN showed that Democrats are at their lowest approval rating since 1992, with only a dismal 29 percent of those suveyed approving of the party. Another poll from NBC News found that only 27 percent of voters approve of the Democratic Party.

That should not surprise many people. Not only did the party lose the White House and the Senate due to dissatisfaction with Joe Biden, voters didn’t believe Kamala Harris would bring down prices or control immigration.

The NBC poll also showed that Trump’s approval rating is at the highest it has ever been, at 47 percent — but it also revealed that he’s underwater, with 51 percent of voters disapproving of the job he’s doing. The main cause of his weakness is fairly clear: The economy.

Despite Trump hitting some high marks, the NBC poll showed that 54 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy and another 55 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation and the cost of living.

It’s not hard to see why stocks took a massive hit last week as the market reacted overwhelmingly negatively to Trump’s threats of tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico, and the erratic nature of his threats. Conservative media sought to tell voters to “ignore” the stock market. Trump only made markets more nervous when he paused his 50 percent tariffs on metals from Canada and threatened a 200 percent tax on European alcohol.

The dissatisfaction came despite the fact that most voters named the economy as the most important issue in exit polls. Despite concerns from economists during the 2024 campaign, voters favored Trump’s economic policies, particularly his pledges to extend his 2017 tax cuts, his plans to eliminate taxes on tips, and implement tariffs on countries like Mexico, Canada and China.

Even after Trump flamed out in his sole debate with Harris, voters still believed he would handle the economy better than she would.

People remembered how prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, unemployment remained relatively low and wages grew at a decent pace. Trump signed major tax cuts and flanked himself with Wall Street experts like Steven Mnuchin at the Treasury Department and Goldman Sachs executive Gary Cohn as one of his chief economic adviser.

Trump’s first administration saw Wall Street alumni such as Gary Cohn and Steven Mnuchin serve as his advisers, which gave confidence to markets. (AP)

Even when the Covid-19 pandemic hit the economy, Trump gave it a boost it with stimulus checks and expanded unemployment payments. Voters appeared to give Trump a pass on the economy during the first year of the pandemic.

Voters’ selective memory of Trump’s economic performance became his kevlar that allowed him to push through and win the presidency despite two impeachments, a series of outright lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets and being found guilty in a criminal court of 34 felonies.

When he ran again, Trump largely won thanks to remaining focused on high prices. He and his running mate JD Vance routinely talked about the rising cost of eggs and other groceries.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have boosted Trump’s economic saber-rattling. (Getty Images)

But voters likely now view him as unfocused on lowering the prices — though the price of eggs has actually taken a slight dip thanks partially to decreased demand and no significant outbreak of Avian flu that originally jacked up the price of eggs, according to a Department of Agriculture report.

The lords of finance also no longer work in the administration. In their stead, trade hawks like Peter Navarro, who served in the first Trump administration, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have taken the reins.

Bessent for his part went on NBC’s Meet the Press the same day the network’s poll dropped showing dissatisfaction and doubled-down on his claim that “access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream.” When asked if he could guarantee there would be no recession, he responded that “there are no guarantees” and that he was not worried about the drop in the markets, saying “corrections are healthy” and even “necessary.”

But voters are likely to tire of their president rather quickly if markets continue to tumble, if Americans don’t believe that Trump is singularly focused on lowering prices, and remains stuck on ventures like making Canada the 51st state or acquiring Greenland.

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