Occam’s razor suggests the most obvious answer is the answer itself.
On Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles are hoping to thwart the Kansas City Chiefs’ three-peat bid by winning Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. If they do it, it’ll almost certainly be because Patrick Mahomes is walking off the field at Caesar’s Superdome with a bruised and battered body.
In Mahomes’s 20 postseason games, Kansas City is 17–3, allowing an average of 5.7 quarterback hits and 1.7 sacks per game in its wins. In the three defeats, those numbers are 8.3 and 3.3, respectively, including Mahomes getting hit 10 times each in the 2018 AFC title game and Super Bowl LV behind a patchwork offensive line. During the Chiefs’ current nine-game playoff win streak, Mahomes hasn’t been hit more than eight times and sacked more than thrice.
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While this may seem like an oversimplification of how Philadelphia can win, sometimes the most complicated matters are the simplest. For the Eagles, two years ago should be proof enough.
Coming into Super Bowl LVII, Philadelphia led the league with 70 sacks in the regular season, third all-time behind the 1984 Chicago Bears (72) and ’89 Minnesota Vikings (71). But against Kansas City, the rush was rendered moot with the Eagles generating just five quarterback hits and zero sacks. Mahomes earned Super Bowl MVP honors, going 21-of-27 for 182 yards and three touchdowns in a 38–35 victory.
Mahomes’s postseason stats read like a champion gamer playing Madden on easy mode. In the playoffs, he’s thrown for 5,557 yards and 43 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. Only three times has Mahomes been held under 200 passing yards, and just twice without a passing touchdown.
If the Eagles limit him, it’s not going to be because of rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean (who are excellent, by the way) or the coverage skills of All-Pro middle linebacker Zack Baun. It’ll be about the four-man rush up front, led by defensive tackle Jalen Carter.
Under coordinator Vic Fangio, the Eagles have enjoyed a sensational defensive turnaround after a brutal 2023 campaign. Philadelphia ranks first in yards allowed per game (278.4) and second in points (17.8). The unit is also first against the pass (174.2) and 10th against the run (104.2), showing very little weakness for Kansas City coach Andy Reid and his offense to exploit.
In the buildup to Sunday, there’s been plenty made about Fangio’s teams being 0–8 against Mahomes throughout his career. Although interesting, the record is somewhat misleading.
Fangio’s defenses have held Mahomes to an average of 229.3 passing yards per game (Mahomes left the game injured in the first matchup) with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions.
But the pass rush tells a concerning story for the Eagles.
In the eight matchups between the two, Mahomes was only sacked 11 times. Furthermore, he was hit on only 36 occasions, giving Fangio an average of 1.3 sacks and 4.5 QB hits per game in those games, both figures coming in below what Kansas City allows on a per-game basis in playoff wins.
And across those games, Fangio has had quality pass rushers at his disposal, including Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler, Jaelen Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel among others.
As for this particular matchup, there are a few things to keep in mind.
Fangio has long eschewed blitzing, something evidenced by Philadelphia ranking 28th in blitz rate this season. Instead, Fangio relies on his front four to get home, something the Eagles haven’t done particularly well this year. In the regular season, Philadelphia checked in 14th in sacks (41), 28th in pressure rate (17.9), 22nd in quarterback knockdowns percentage (7.6) and 32nd in hurry rate (4.7). If those numbers continue Sunday, it could be a long day for Philly’s defense against Mahomes.
While Philadelphia has a superb secondary capable of playing man or zone against Kansas City’s somewhat limited group of receivers, history says Mahomes with time equals points for the Chiefs.
Kansas City also has a coaching advantage with Reid on the sideline. One of the great offensive minds in league history, Reid has a pair of speedy receivers in Xavier Worthy and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to deploy, savvy vets in JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeAndre Hopkins, and arguably the greatest tight end of all time in Travis Kelce.
Statistically speaking, if Reid gives Mahomes an open look, he’s going to find the target, and quickly. In the regular season, his average pocket time per dropback was 2.3 seconds, as fast or faster than all but three quarterbacks who started at least 10 games. In the playoffs against Houston and Buffalo, that pace has quickened slightly to 2.2 seconds.
Fangio and his front four have to not just win, they must win quickly. If they don’t, Mahomes and Reid could prove fatal for Philadelphia’s title hopes.
Sometimes, the obvious answer is the answer.
If the Eagles are to win, they must get to Mahomes, or watch Mahomes get another ring.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Eagles Must Get to Patrick Mahomes, or Else the Chiefs Will Three-Peat.
