The Detroit Lions are one of four NFL franchises that have never participated in a Super Bowl. But according to the odds heading into Week 11 of the 2024 season, no team has a better chance of representing the NFC in the big game this year.
Lions Have An 83% Chance Of Winning The NFC North
They came so close last season. Facing off against the mighty San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship, Dan Campbell and his team went into halftime with a commanding 24-7 lead. But heartbreak ensued as they were outscored 27-7 in the second half, eliminating them from contention in what could have been a magical season.
They’ve returned in full force for 2024. The Lions are an NFC-best 8-1 through their first 9 games, and have the best point differential (+113) of any team in the entire league. And according to both the betting odds and postseason probability calculator, they are the team that is most likely to win their conference.
JAKE. BATES. CALLED. GAME. #DETvsHOU | 📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/fSa4NBaZsP
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 11, 2024
ESPN used its Football Power Index to simulate the remainder of the season and the potential outcomes in the postseason, and Detroit is atop the list. Their playoff probability sits at better than 99%, and they have an 83% chance of winning the NFC North when all is said and done.
Detroit’s Super Bowl Probability Sits At 33%
But it is the next couple of numbers on the chart that are the most intriguing. There is a 65% chance that the Lions will finish with the NFC’s best record, which would give them a bye during the first week of the postseason, as well as home field advantage throughout. Given that they are 14-2 in their last 16 games played at Ford Field (2-0 in the playoffs), playing within their friendly confines could be the extra boost the team needs to get to the big game.
Then there are the Super Bowl odds themselves. At the sportsbooks, the Lions are listed around +190 to be the winners of the NFC. And according to ESPN’s models, the probability of the Lions playing in their first ever Super Bowl are 33%.
The team with the next-highest odds in the conference is the Eagles, all the way back at 16%. The Commanders and Vikings are next on the list, tied with a 9% chance of qualifying for the Super Bowl. Last year’s NFC Champions, the 49ers, are surprisingly tied with the Atlanta Falcons at 7%.
In the AFC, the undefeated Chiefs are atop the list with a 30% chance of playing in the big game, but other contenders aren’t far behind. The Bills sit at 23%, with the Ravens just behind at 22%.
