There’s no position more endemic to NFL success than quarterback. Over the last decade, each Super Bowl winning QB has earned at least one Pro Bowl invitation. Those six passers have combined for 10 MVP awards and 20 All-Pro honors.
So while a good defense can push a team to the playoffs, the line between contender and participant has been drawn at the space just behind each team’s center. More than ever, teams need a player who can stretch the field with big throws and lead his team back from daunting deficits.
Thanks to years of data, we know who the best candidates are. Predicting how they’ll play in 2023, however, is a much trickier exercise. Last season saw promising quarterbacks old and young fall off as guys like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones all backslid. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa made a significant step forward and Geno Smith emerged from his cocoon as a navy-and-neon butterfly who helped carry the Seattle Seahawks from a months-long rebuild.
Let’s use that data to get a vague idea of how this year’s pecking order will unfold. We’ve got a pretty good idea of who 2023’s best quarterback will be and a solid guess, at least with the 32 names we’ve been given to start the season, who’ll be the worst. In between? Well, there’s going to be some arguments and some shuffling and a few genuine suprises.
With that in mind, this is the first look at our 2023 NFL regular season quarterback tiers.
Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Two Super Bowls and two MVP awards in five seasons as a starter. He did it last year without Tyreek Hill. He deserves his own spot.
Tier 1b: Extremely good quarterbacks who aren't Patrick Mahomes
2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts ascends to the top line (or at least as close to it as you can get without being Mahomes) on the strength of a breakthrough 2022 and an NFC title. Burrow was already there after a breakthrough 2021 and an AFC title. Allen is missing the latter half of that equation but worked with fewer weapons in his receiving corps. You could justify any ranking of these three quarterbacks in slots two through four.
Tier 2: Young studs capable of greatness
5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
7. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Here’s where things get divisive — although maybe Jalen Hurts did the trick for you in Tier 1b. There’s a fair bit of projection at this level. Tier 2 is made up of the highest potential quarterbacks in the game, though their floors may be lower than the passers below them.
Jackson is a game-changer chasing the highs of his 2019 MVP campaign. He’s missed weeks due to injury each of the last two seasons and been significantly less efficient than he was at his peak. He was also dealing with one of the league’s worst receiving corps — something that’s changed, at least on paper, for 2023.
Herbert’s breakout was delayed by awful injury luck and similarly terrible play-calling in 2022. With a healthy offensive line, coordinator Kellen Moore and a Keenan Allen-Mike Williams-Quentin Johnston trio at wideout he’s set up for his finest season as a pro. Tagovailoa was 2022’s most efficient QB but missed time due to legitimately troublesome head injuries.
Lawrence was removed from Urban Meyer’s gravity and was allowed to take off like a rocket, effectively using 2022 as a do-over for his rookie campaign. Now he’s also got his own wideout upgrade — a reinstated Calvin Ridley — and a clear path back to the playoffs.
Tier 3: Approaching the circle of trust
9. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
11. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
13. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Will Rodgers’ reduced mobility continue the 2022 slide that led him to his least efficient season as a starting quarterback? Will a new franchise and upgraded wideouts revitalize him back to his 2021 MVP form? Who knows, but No. 9 could be entirely too high or too low for him by the time Christmas rolls around.
Prescott is capable of rising to great heights or imploding upon himself like a dying star and has managed both under Mike McCarthy. Goff found a system that works for him in Detroit and rebuild himself into a franchise quarterback, which could merely be a brilliant ploy to devastate Lions fans once again.
Smith was a glorious story for 2022 and a top-10 quarterback in most efficiency metrics, but his slide over the back half of the season can’t be ignored. Carr is generally better than given credit for, and I’m willing to chalk up his iffy 2022 to the Josh McDaniels of it all.
Tier 4: We're not sure if you're actually good or just a symptom of the right offensive system
14. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
15. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
16. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Jared Goff escaped this tier thanks to his MVP-adjacent 2018 before falling into an abyss to close out his Rams career. Purdy is here because he was a lightly regarded NFL prospect who thrived in a 49ers system that caters to flawed passers. He’s also capable of making better reads and running the ball in ways Jimmy Garoppolo could not, so it’s possible Kyle Shanahan has a franchise cornerstone behind center.
Jones and Fields have been repeatedly let down by the systems around them and probably don’t deserve a top half ranking until they prove they can sustain their success. Jones thrived because new head coach Brian Daboll utilized his running abilities and a litany of short passes to create an efficient, low-impact and clock-draining offense. That’ll be more difficult against a tougher schedule in 2023.
Fields is a mystery. He played with awful receivers and an even worse offensive line. He runs magnificently but needs more work in the pocket to give his downfield passing game more than a proof of concept. That wasn’t his fault the last two seasons — where he had nearly a 14 percent sack rate and was throwing to wideouts like Dante Pettis and N’Keal Harry — but the Bears have to show they can harness his enormous potential into something more than highlight fodder and fantasy points.
Tier 5: Expectations are low after a garbage year, but you used to be a franchise quarterback so...
17. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
18. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
19. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
20. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
21. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
22. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
23. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
This is a densely populated tier of guys who can get you to the postseason, but who also gave you plenty of reasons to bet against them in 2022. Stafford was injured last season and is 18 months removed from a Super Bowl win. A comeback year at age 35 will have to come alongside a depleted roster similar to the one with which he recorded -0.011 expected points added (EPA) per play last fall (29th best among qualified QBs, per RBSDM.com).
Cousins’ numbers dropped precipitously in 2022, and the Vikings may decide this season is their last with him at the helm. Garoppolo’s system worked thanks to an array of playmaking wizards in San Francisco. He’ll have a useful supporting cast in Las Vegas, but nothing as potent as the group that led the league in yards after catch four of the last five seasons.
Tannehill has steadily declined following his 2019 resurgence in Nashville. Watson — for whom the Browns traded three first round picks and gave $230 million in guaranteed money despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the league itself described as “predatory behavior” — was significantly worse than Jacoby Brissett last year.
Wilson arrived in Denver and promptly appeared broken. Maybe separating him from an overmatched coach in Nathaniel Hackett will help, or maybe he’s cooked. Kyler Murray will eventually return from a torn ACL to pilot one of the worst rosters in football.
Tier 6: Rookies without a ton of help
24. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
25. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
26. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Young will have to rise up behind a shoddy offense line and a receiving corps without a reliable top target. Stroud will be starting for the Texans, dragging everything that entails into his rookie year. Richardson has inherited the league’s shallowest receiving corps — for a time after cutdown day it was down to three wideouts total — and won’t have Jonathan Taylor at his disposal for at least four games and possibly more.
All three players will create highlight reel moments and build hope in their respective cities. And all three will more than likely lose more games than they win in 2023.
Tier 7: Young guys we're not quite sold on
27. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
28. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
29. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
30. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
31. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
It’s possible these quarterbacks are the future. Their franchises are certainly hoping that’s the case, albeit with lowered expectations than the tiers ahead of them.
Jones backslid mightily in 2022, but the Patriots seem content to blame that all on Matt Patricia’s guidance. Bill O’Brien is calling plays now, so things… should get better? Pickett was a low-impact rookie who didn’t make big plays but won games. He’s surrounded by receiving talent and an upgraded offensive line, which should lead to success.
Love is an enigma who’ll be surrounded by a wideout and tight end corps of NFL toddlers. Ridder has two catch radius behemoths in Kyle Pitts and Drake London and may be asked to hand the ball off 35 times per game regardless. Howell has to be better than Carson Wentz to be an improvement in Washington so, you know, congrats on that.
Tier 8: BAKER MAYFIELD
32. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Or hey, maybe it’ll be Kyle Trask at some point. Either way the Buccaneers are starting 2022’s worst quarterback or a player with nine regular season passes (and three completions) to his credit. And then next year Caleb Williams or Drake Maye arrives.
