The data that backs up Leeds United's Jesse Marsch…

The data that backs up Leeds United's Jesse Marsch decision

Some fans may have called for his head, but recent history shows Leeds United may be better off keeping faith with Jesse Marsch.

With the news that relegation rivals Everton have sacked manager Frank Lampard, many Leeds fans will be watching eagerly to see who the Merseyside club bring in, while wondering if their club would be right to do the same before the end of the season.

Leeds, who currently sit 15th in the Premier league with just four wins, six draws and nine defeats from their 19 games so far, parted ways with former boss Marcelo Bielsa last year.

At the time, the team were 18th in the table, and did improve marginally to finish 17th and remain in the league, but are once again flirting with the bottom three.

And with some fans calling for Marsch to go as well, it begs the question if sacking the boss mid-season really helps a team who are struggling in the Premier League.

Leeds’ relegation rivals Bournemouth, Wolves and Southampton have all made the change before Everton pulled the plug on Lampard this week, while Aston Villa have shot up the table since replacing Steven Gerrard with Unai Emery.

But aside from Villa, the other teams with new managers have struggled to improve their league position, showing little evidence of the ‘new manager bounce’ many teams crave when replacing the boss mid-season. This is not just an issue this year, though.

Only twice in eight attempts over the past five seasons has a new manager taken over a team in the bottom three and steered them to safety (Newcastle and Leeds in 2021/22). That gives clubs in the bottom three only a 25% chance of survival under their new boss.

And of the 15 times a ‘struggling’ team (15th or below) has sacked their manager mid season, only five have gone on to survive in the Premier League (Southampton in 2018, West Ham in 2020, and Leeds, Aston Villa and Newcastle in 2022).

Furthermore, only five of these 15 sackings have led to a team finishing higher under a new manager than they were when they sacked the previous one (West Ham in 2020 and Leeds, Watford, Aston Villa and Newcastle in 2022).

This means that teams in the relegation battle have been twice as likely to finish in the same position or worse than where they started, than they are to improve.

So far in 2022/23, five teams have sacked their manager while 15th or below in the league: Bournemouth (17th), Wolves (18th), Aston Villa (17th), Southampton (18th) and Everton (19th).

But of those teams, only Wolves and Aston Villa have moved up the table since replacing the man at the top. While Everton are yet to appoint a replacement for Frank Lampard, recent trends show little evidence to suggest that changing managers mid-season will help keep a struggling team up.

The data that backs up Leeds United's Jesse Marsch decision

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