The data behind Lewis Hamilton's sprint pole-winning…

After a disappointing weekend in Australia, Ferrari rediscovered its form in China with a surprise pole for Lewis Hamilton. As McLaren challenge failed to materialise, Hamilton’s performance made the difference for his first pole with the SF-25.

The Shanghai International Circuit is a very technical track due to its mix of corners that especially test the driver’s confidence on entry. This is where Hamilton made the difference, finding those crucial hundredths of a second to beat his rivals, including McLaren, who failed to capitalize.

There were key factors, namely switching from medium to soft tires without much reference data is never easy, and with only one attempt at a flying lap available, the pressure to put everything together was incredibly high.

Ferrari and McLaren took two different approaches: Ferrari opted for a single run, while McLaren chose two.

Although data confirms that Norris could have fought for pole had he not made a mistake at turn 13, opting for two attempts on a single set of tires has its downsides. Realistically, the papaya-colored team should have taken pole, but Hamilton strung together a decisive lap.

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari (Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images)

Hamilton pointed to his first sector time as being key to his performance and while he improved by about a tenth compared to his previous best, in line with his rivals, the key factor wasn’t just the raw lap time.

On a circuit where tire management is crucial due to the high pressures imposed by Pirelli, which makes overheating a challenge, a crucial factor was avoiding excessive tire wear in the opening corners — something that caught out Charles Leclerc in his final SQ3 attempt.

Hamilton’s approach, though, is evident in the telemetry data: his deceleration phase differs from his rivals because, by taking a wider trajectory and being less aggressive on the tires, he manages to keep the throttle open for longer. With higher temperatures than in FP1, it became crucial not to overwork the front tires. Leclerc stayed much tighter in an attempt to cover fewer meters—a section where he had already struggled in 2024. Only Norris managed to do better in his final attempt, but to achieve that, he put a lot of strain on the front end.

Equally important was Hamilton’s performance in the middle sector, where he set the absolute record, with good cornering through turn 6 and the 7/8/9 sequence. Telemetry data shows that Ferrari, and Hamilton in particular, carried significant speed into turn 8 — similar to Max Verstappen, with Red Bull always strong in such sections, but quicker than McLaren.

Those crucial data points reveal some of the characteristics that make McLaren's MCL38 slightly more unstable, as the drivers have pointed out, despite its competitiveness.

Data also shows how Hamilton plays with the throttle, delaying and keeping it open longer than other drivers. The third sector, however, was a different story. With DRS open, the SF-25 held its own, losing just 1 km/h to Red Bull but gaining 5 km/h over the McLarens, allowing Hamilton to extend his lead — at least for part of the straight.

The moment where it almost slipped away was in the final corner, where Hamilton was the slowest, losing 13 km/h to Piastri and 8 km/h to Verstappen. The corner may play a pain point in Hamilton's weekend and highlights an area where the seven-time world champion still needs to improve.

As seen in Australia, in medium-high-speed corners with sharp turns, Hamilton still lacks some confidence on entry compared to McLaren, Red Bull, and even his Ferrari teammate, Leclerc.

After qualifying, Hamilton explained that he immediately felt more comfortable with the SF-25 in China than in Australia, as he is starting to give his own input on the setup to tailor the car to his needs and unlock its potential — something that was only glimpsed in Melbourne.

The biggest challenge will be over long distances, where McLaren will still be the most formidable opponent.