Canberra has slipped so far down the list of touring act "B market" locations the city is now ranked below Newcastle, Townsville and the Gold Coast, and one of Australia's leading promoters says a proposed entertainment pavilion may not solve the issue.
In news that could prompt changes to the ACT government's infrastructure plan, the tour promoter behind acts including Taylor Swift says Canberra needs a major venue revamp to be an attractive concert destination.
ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr has flagged plans to build a $250 million pavilion in the city by 2030, and a $500 million stadium at Bruce by 2033 in an attempt to plug the gap and make Canberra an attractive destination.
But after the city's music fans were left out in the cold again last week, Frontier Touring chief executive Dion Brant said a pavilion with a capacity of 7500 may not be enough to lift Canberra off the bottom of the second-tier city rankings.
Mr Brant did reveal Beatles legend Paul McCartney did consider a stop in the capital on his six-show "Get Back" tour in the coming months. But several factors - the ageing facilities at Canberra Stadium, the venue's non-rectangular orientation and cold October nights - led McCartney to opt for Newcastle and the Gold Coast.
"Very rarely do you play all of those B markets and Canberra's not at the top of the list," Mr Brant said.
It's understood the Foo Fighters and Bruce Springsteen have also looked at Canberra as options before deciding to play at other rectangular venues around Australia.
Canberra has been without a premier indoor venue since 2020, when the Australian Sports Commission closed the AIS Arena. It is expected to reopen by mid next year and the ACT government will take control of venue operations at the federal-government asset.
But with a capacity of between 4000-5000, it will be able to attract some shows but won't be big enough for some of the major acts, like McCartney or Elton John.
Mr Brant - whose company works with Taylor Swift, the Foo Fighters, Ed Sheeran and McCartney - said a crowd capacity of close to 10,000 was crucial in making Canberra a viable tour stop.
Canberra cannot compete with major venues in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, but it is now also considered a less desirable location than Newcastle, Townsville, the Gold Coast and Geelong.
"I would say a new arena of 7500 is just on the cusp of viable. It's probably good, and it could help bring some acts to Canberra. If it was 8500, would it be better? Yes," Mr Brant said.
"We looked at Canberra [for McCartney]. The stadium was the challenge - it's not symmetrical or a rectangle. That's not a format a lot of artists like and it's smaller than Newcastle, so the revenue is less.
"Newcastle had the Elton John shows earlier this year. They were fantastic and successful, so Newcastle has a proven track record and it's warmer in October. Newcastle became the easier choice.
"Canberra is a tough sell to artists when, with all due respects to Canberra, you look at other B markets. You've got an amazing stadium in Geelong, a really quite good stadium in Newcastle, the same on the Gold Coast and a small, but modern, stadium in Townsville.
"Then there's Canberra, with a market that's probably similar in many aspects but with poor infrastructure. Very rarely do you play all of those B markets and Canberra's not at the top of the list."
McCartney's decision to bypass Canberra, and independent Senator David Pocock's "vision for Canberra", have sparked renewed debate about how the government can best spend its infrastructure budget.
Mr Barr is keen to build a concert pavilion - which could also host marquee sports fixtures - and a convention centre precinct in the city, and invest in a $500 million Canberra Stadium overhaul at Bruce. The federal government is expected to agree to a funding partnership.
Mr Pocock published his ideas last week and wants to revive parts of the abandoned city to the lake plan, including turning Parkes Way into a tunnel, selling new land for sustainable housing and building a multi-purpose stadium for sport and events in Civic.
The ACT government's own report from 2013 suggests the $210 million cost of making Parkes Way a tunnel would be offset by the $386 million generated in development revenue on newly-created land parcels.
For now, though, Canberra is a forgotten concert stop on Australian tours, which has been compounded by the Australian Sports Commission's decision to close the AIS Arena - the city's largest indoor venue - in 2020. It is expected to reopen by mid next year.
Canberra Stadium will host its first concert since 2019 when Matchbox 20 and the Goo Goo Dolls play in front of an expected sell out crowd in February.
Mr Pocock has pointed to the Christchurch stadium development as a mutli-use venue example for Canberra, while Mr Brant said the right infrastructure would lure acts back to the capital.
"The Canberra market is on our radar," Mr Brant said. "We are aware of it, and we'd love to bring more stuff there and we do from time to time bring acts to Stage 88 or the Canberra Theatre. But for that stadium level stuff, infrastructure is something we've got to move past.
"Even when the AIS Arena reopens, it's an imperfect solution. But's a never say never situation."
Mr Brant said Canberra would suit artists on extended tours of Australia, pointing to Elton John, Robbie Williams and Bruce Springsteen as examples. Elton John has played shows in Canberra in the past, but skipped the city on his farewell tour this year to instead play two shows in Newcastle.
"When an artist comes for three or four weeks, you can start looking at second-tier markets," Mr Brant said.
"There are acts who genuinely want to go to different markets, but it's rare you get acts that want to go to five or six of those markets. If you're choosing one or two, infrastructure becomes a major consideration.
"I understand governments have to make priority decisions and I'm not the treasurer working out budget priorities ... but the nirvana of having a nice, roofed stadium in town would be fantastic."
We've made it a whole lot easier for you to have your say. Our new comment platform requires only one log-in to access articles and to join the discussion on The Canberra Times website. Find out how to register so you can enjoy civil, friendly and engaging discussions. See our moderation policy here.
