Whichever parties form the next government must commit to deliver our collective plan rather than cherry-pick what's politically expedient for them, writes Rod Oram.
Opinion: The Climate Change Commission's expertise and authority are growing rapidly, judging by its latest advice to the Government on the next Emissions Reduction Plan.
Its draft report offers full evidence and analysis of the large margin by which we'll miss our national carbon budgets because of the shortcomings of the current Government's policies, as Marc Daalder reported this week for Newsroom.
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It goes on to make a raft of recommendations for improving our policies and performance. Particularly noteworthy is its analysis of the mess we're making of forestry. We're relying on new plantings to mop up much of our emissions as a cheap, short-term substitute for sharply cutting carbon.
That means we'll pay twice – in the short term for the plantings and offsets; and for actual emission reductions in the longer term once we've maxed out forestry sequestration. Almost as bad, the plantings are at real risk from fire and disease, and they impinge on agriculture.
It should report what the boldest countries and companies are achieving, analyse how they're doing it, and recommend how we could modify and apply such global best practice.
Overall, the commission makes seven major recommendations in 'Fundamentals for success', the first part of its report; and 12 recommendations in part 2, 'Creating low emissions options'.
Yet some crucial elements are missing. For example, the commission does not tackle the pressing need for very deep reform of the electricity sector to ensure it can deliver far more renewable electricity, far faster, and more cheaply.
To do that the sector urgently needs a complete overhaul of its wholesale market; the gentailers' conflicts of interest between the two sides of their business; and the regulations and ownership structure of the regional lines company that deliver electricity to customers.
Similarly the commission's analysis of buildings and construction makes the obvious, strong case for retrofitting existing buildings to make them more energy efficient and lesser emitters.
But it only mentions in passing more fundamental issues such as drastically tightening the energy efficiency regulations on newbuilds; and switching to more climate-compatible building materials and construction methods, which in turn would make construction faster and more efficient.
If we fail to transform our political, government, business and societal systems we'll limp along making climate policy and acting on it in the deeply dysfunctional way we do now.
The chapter on agriculture is also disappointing. It pushes the Government and the sector to do more to meet their existing but very modest climate goals.
However, it fails to make the case that the best of our farming competitors abroad are far more committed than we are to making farming and food production more climate-compatible. So, they are pulling rapidly ahead of us.
The third and final part of the report, 'Enabling systems transformation', has some merits. It describes, for example, how we must radically reinvent the way we meet our needs by transitioning fast to a bioeconomy within a circular economy. In the first, more of our raw materials are biological rather than minerals such as fossil fuels and metals; in the second, we fully reuse resources – natural and human-made – waste nothing, and cause no pollution.
To be blunt, we lack the political will, the social cohesion, the policy creativity, the appetite and ambition, and the future thinking required to keep up with the fast-accelerating climate crisis, or the best of our competitor companies and nations.
"A more circular economy and sustainable bioeconomy can promote long-term resilience, generate business and economic opportunities, and provide environmental and cultural benefits domestically and abroad. The failure to move towards this future could put Aotearoa New Zealand’s global competitiveness at risk," the commission says.
But the commission makes no recommendations in this part. Yet if we fail to transform our political, government, business and societal systems we'll limp along making climate policy and acting on it in the deeply dysfunctional way we do now.
To be blunt, we lack the political will, the social cohesion, the policy creativity, the appetite and ambition, and the future thinking required to keep up with the fast-accelerating climate crisis, or the best of our competitor companies and nations.
To rectify that, the commission's final advice to government on its next Emissions Reduction Plan needs much more global context. It should report what the boldest countries and companies are achieving, analyse how they're doing it, and recommend how we could modify and apply such global best practice.
Its final report also needs to deal comprehensively with how massive our climate goals must be, how excruciatingly short our time is for achieving them, and how great our benefits are from doing so.
We can all help the commission turn this draft report into the robust climate roadmap the country must have. Indeed, the commission eagerly seeks submissions, as it does on all its work. Details of its consultation process are here.
But hurry. Time is very short. The deadline for submissions is June 20; and the commission will deliver its final report to the Climate Minister by December 31.
Then the Government will draw up our second Emissions Reductions Plan, to cover the 2026-2030 carbon budget. No government can do that alone. It needs to crowdsource all the plans and energy we citizens have. It's truly our Emissions Reduction Plan, not the Government’s.
And whichever parties form the next government after October's general election must commit to deliver our collective plan rather than cherry-pick what's politically expedient for them.
If they don't, we'll blow through our 2026-30 carbon budget; and adequate climate mitigation and adaptation will become nigh-on impossible.
