In a lot of ways, the 2022 season went about as good as the Dallas Cowboys could have expected after quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a fractured thumb in a season opening loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Once it was reported Prescott would miss several weeks, their season was written off by many. Sportsbooks lengthened the team’s title odds. PointsBet even gave an early payout to people who bet on Dallas’ win total under.
That turned out to be a mistake. The Cowboys eclipsed their 10.5 preseason win total by two games. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush did a fine job as game manager, losing just once in five starts. The team was 4-2 when Prescott made his return earlier than expected. They went 8-3 to finish the season.
However, these Cowboys aren’t the dominant force they were expected to be once healthy. Prescott has been inconsistent all season, tying for the league-lead in interceptions despite missing games. His play has spiraled especially in the last five weeks, where he has eight interceptions — many in crucial moments — in a stretch that includes losses to the Jaguars and Commanders, and scares against the Texans and shorthanded Eagles.
Now, Dallas enters the Wild Card round of the playoffs as just a 2.5-point favorite over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that only averages 18 points per game. If Prescott and the collective don’t play better, their season will end the same way it started: with a loss to the Bucs.
Only, instead of a thumb injury, it’ll be the team’s confidence in its quarterback that’s fractured.
The Bucs are flawed, but they’re still just two years removed from winning a Super Bowl. And they don’t ever have to question how ready their quarterback is for a big game or moment. Tom Brady may not be the player he once was, but he’s shown there’s still plenty left in the tank when Tampa needs him most.
He’s also going into the postseason on an upward trajectory, completing over 70% of his passes with no interceptions in the last two weeks. That includes over 400 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17. It comes just as Dallas’ pass rush is slowing. They’ve averaged fewer than two sacks over the last seven games after averaging four sacks in their first 10 games. That’s a dangerous combination considering Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys, his most wins without a loss against any team in the NFL.
Other players will have a say in the outcome, but if you’re betting on whether the team with the G.O.A.T. or the one with Prescott is going to come out on top, the answer seems pretty simple.
