Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been one of the NFL’s most compelling rookies in recent years, regardless of position. He’s a primary reason why the Texans, who finished the 2022 season with a 3-13-1 record, are playing Saturday night for the AFC South championship at 9-7. Stroud and his comrades will tangle with a Colts defense that is quite underrated of late.
New "Xs and Os with @gregcosell" — When the @HoustonTexans take on the @Colts for the AFC South tonight, C.J. Stroud will have to deal with a defense filled with names you may not know, but the youngsters are getting it done. Here's the scoop on Gus Bradley's Colts defense. pic.twitter.com/K7D6LJrrCg
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 6, 2024
But this Colts defense has already seen more of Stroud than they might like. In Stroud’s second regular-season game of his NFL career, he carved Gus Bradley’s defense up to the tune of 30 completions in 47 attempts for 384 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.5.
In the rematch, Bradley might want to switch his priors around a bit. The Colts have played the NFL’s second-highest rate of Cover-3 this season (48.8%, behind only the Carolina Panthers’ 50.0%), and Stroud has killed Cover-3 all season long. The Colts in Week 2 played Cover-3 on a league-high 22 of Stroud’s dropbacks back then, and Stroud completed 14 of 19 passes for 178 yards, 95 air yards, both of his touchdowns, and a passer rating of 137.6 against Bradley’s favorite coverage. For the season, Stroud has completed 91 of 136 passes for 1,211 yards, 798 air yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 106.6 against Cover-3.
This 23-yard touchdown to rookie receiver Nathaniel “Tank” Dell in Week 2 had Stroud showing off one of his best throws against zone coverage — the quick out. The Texans had a mirrored concept here with two slot verts and two outside out routes, and the structure of the routes had Dell beating cornerback Darrell Baker, who was likely expecting Dell to run something vertical, underneath. Ready, set, go.
C.J. Stroud of the @HoustonTexans has killed it against Cover-3 this season. The @Colts play the NFL's second-highest rate of Cover-3 this season, behind only the @Panthers. Based on Stroud's Week 2 game against Gus Bradley's defense, Bradley might want to switch it up. pic.twitter.com/jhSnN6RvCh
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 6, 2024
“He’s very talented,” Bradley said this week of Stroud. “First of all, he plays with great poise. He handles pressures, he handles looks, he handles different schemes very well. He gets the ball out timely. Does he hold it some? Yeah, because they take some shots, but it is timely when it is the quick game and when it’s in their intermediate passes. His accuracy is very good so – very poised, accurate, playing above the level of being a rookie. I think at this point in time, he’s not a rookie because the looks that he’s seen. He’s playing very well for them right now. I think they’re third or something in explosive passes. I know very high, I think the analytics told us so. He does a great job with the threats he has on the outside.”
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into Stroud’s return from a concussion, how he was able to dice up the Titans’ pass defense in Week 17, and what it all means for this crucial Saturday night matchup. The Colts will be ready with some serious improving players on the defensive side of the ball, and it’s important to remember that Stroud was also sacked six times in that Week 2 game.
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