It’s been a fascinating few months to be a fly on the wall in Jim Irsay’s office. There, you would have witnessed the moment he fired Frank Reich, the moment he installed Jeff Saturday as interim coach, the proceeding moments when Saturday went 1–7 and his team blew the biggest lead in NFL history, the moment when he seriously considered giving Saturday the full-time job, and the moment when he hired Shane Steichen as his next head coach.
In case you happen to be a fly who appreciates a good bit of irony, some of Steichen’s formative years came under the tutelage of Reich.
So it’s wild to say that what happens next, what Irsay will decide to do in the coming weeks, will be the most consequential in terms of the day-to-day operations of the franchise he runs. If it doesn’t emerge as the talk of this week’s scouting combine, where the owner and his general manager have most of the professional football world at their doorstep, it would be fair to wonder whether he’s fit to keep his hands on the steering wheel for much longer.
Here’s the long and short of it: The Bears are probably going to trade the No. 1 pick and build a team around Justin Fields, despite the fact that they’ll meet with quarterback prospects throughout the process. ESPN reported as much Monday. General manager Ryan Poles alluded to it at his end-of-season press conference. While there should be a field of interested bidders, the Colts, who have spent a painful half decade trying to replace Andrew Luck with one-off veterans, are among the most obvious teams in need of a premium draft slot. Irsay himself hinted at potential No. 1 pick Bryce Young.
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What makes this situation consequential for Irsay directly is the Texans should also be interested in the best quarterback prospect in the class.
Being tortured by a draft mistake pales in comparison to being tortured by a draft mistake that directly affects and elevates a division rival. If the Texans get Young, for example, and he’s as good as we’re led to believe (and we’ve seen while at Alabama), that is the kind of uniquely painful occurrence that transitions one from cordially booed owner to some fans paid to fly a plane over the stadium to complain about you owner. While you may never be people are literally begging you to sell the team owner (Daniel Snyder isn’t surrendering that mantle anytime soon), it’s still an unenviable lot on Billionaire Lane.
In some facilities we’ve seen a general softening toward the idea of trading with a team in the division. While the Rams and 49ers clawed at one another for Christian McCaffrey, each afraid of what the other could do with McCaffrey’s versatile skill set, the Lions and Vikings struck multiple deals with one another last season alone. And certainly, there is something to be said about the amount of time teams waste specifically tailoring themselves to survive the division versus simply becoming the best version of themselves (the Browns, for example, spending years trying to match the Steelers’ and Ravens’ physicality only to watch the division completely pivot).
The quarterback position is entirely different. Let’s imagine a world where we soon abandon any discussion about Young’s size and stop playing into the NFL’s predraft programming hand, pretending there is some sort of real controversy here (one evaluator I spoke with Monday said that it’s “not an issue for me” and that Young possesses the requisite gifts that don’t change much with height). Let’s start imagining a world where he plays as well in the NFL as he’s done at every other locale in his career. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah compared him to a young Drew Brees.
Now let’s imagine that player throwing up three touchdowns in a game at Lucas Oil Stadium wearing a Texans uniform, after Houston has outbid the Colts for the privilege (and despite the Texans’ initially costing themselves the top pick with a devil-may-care comeback win over the Colts in Week 18). Let’s imagine Reich’s Panthers with a winning record, too, just to pacify that fly on the wall who finds this all so amusing.
In executing his power play last year in Indianapolis and foisting himself back into the public sphere as an “active owner,” Irsay took the kind of risk that had two possible outcomes: either Saturday was the next Deion Sanders or Steve Kerr, and Irsay would have become the kind of outlaw genius he may have always fancied himself to be. Or, he’d be here, bruised and battered, the butt of all our jokes. He is reeling.
Irsay has more to lose here. Texans owner Cal McNair just emerged from his own version of ownership hell, following the ouster of former executive vice president Jack Easterby and the finalization of a Deshaun Watson trade. Hiring DeMeco Ryans as his coach was one of the biggest optical victories of the last few months (this is not to downplay Irsay’s decision to hire Steichen, which, at least according to our in-season future head coach rankings, was a wise choice).
Now, it’s Irsay’s turn. Sitting and hoping the right quarterback will be there at No. 4, where Indianapolis is currently picking, may seem as unfathomable in a few years as installing a former ESPN analyst as your head coach midseason. And who wants a few of those on your résumé?
