It is hardly a case which requires Sherlock Holmes to crack it open.
The crumbs of evidence which hinted to Ellis Jenkins not being assured of his place in Wales' Six Nations starting XV were more like loaves in Wayne Pivac's post-squad announcement press conference.
When asked why it was Dan Biggar who was selected to lead Wales in their title defence, rather than Ellis Jenkins - the man who had captained Wales in their last two autumn fixtures - Pivac's answer made things pretty clear.
"We’re looking at form, at players who are competing in different positions and the captain has to have a guaranteed position in the team bolted on," the Wales boss explained.
"Dan, at the moment is the form 10, and there’s a lot of competition in the other positions."
There we go. First question in and the case is solved. Biggar is assured of his place. Others, namely Jenkins - given he was the front-runner for many - are not.
Often with a case such as this, it's the 'why' which needs answering above all else.
For many, Jenkins was one of the positives of the autumn. Having been away from Test rugby for three years, he returned in superlative fashion against the world champion Springboks.
Many a journalist from the national newspapers of England, who perhaps tend not to see Jenkins in the flesh as often as Wales-based scribes, were awe-struck by the 28-year-old back-rower.
The night of that narrow defeat to South Africa, there was only one story. There was only one player who journalists were badgering the Welsh Rugby Union's press officer to interview.
His return to the fold continued in that superb vein. For the next two matches, the captaincy was trusted to Jenkins in clashes against Fiji and Australia. My, how the Cardiff flanker had returned.
You could easily make the argument that, on talent alone, Jenkins is the best back-rower Wales currently have available.
So why isn't his place assured?
Well, there are suggestions that in the Welsh camp, Jenkins is seen as not being explosive enough for No. 6, nor fast enough for No. 7. Criticism of Jenkins is rare but if there was one accusation you might hear levelled at him, it is pace.
That is more than a touch unfair, given the injury nightmare he has overcome, but some insist that the 28-year-old has not got the pace of others.
Of course, that tends to blindly overlook the speed of thought to intercept the ball in the first place, with Jenkins' awareness and ability to read when a ball is out of a ruck meaning he often picks off more passes than any breakaway has a right to.
But rugby is a game of opinion, after all, and everyone has their own including the Welsh coaching ticket.
They have an idea of how they want the game to be played and how they see it going.
Ultimately, they have a vision in mind of their back-row balance.
A destructive blindside, a dynamic and mobile openside and an athletic No. 8. In an ideal world, the latter two work in tandem around the park, particularly in the wider channels.
Speaking about what they want from a blindside flanker, Wales defence coach Gethin Jenkins made it fairly clear in the autumn that it's about physicality, big hits and clearout dominance.
“I think, for me, that is the way forward, you do need an abrasive No. 6 who can do those things,” the former Lions prop said.
“Ideally, we have someone who is that type of player.
“We tend to have a lot of 7s, a little less 8s and then even less 6s in Wales at the moment.
“We’ve got to work with the hand we are dealt, really, and try and develop those boys who can cover in those positions.
“You’ve also got the likes of Shane [Lewis-Hughes] who is still progressing and hasn’t been back long from injury.
“Dan Lydiate, at the other end of the spectrum, is still out.
“We have got to try and develop people, for example Seb Davies, who has been on the bench covering 6.
“We are trying to develop him into someone who can maybe play in that position come World Cup time. A lot of our work is going into making him aware what it takes to be in that position.”
That is why Davies, and other hybrid second-row/back-rows like Christ Tshiunza, are being blooded.
It is also why Lewis-Hughes was parachuted in from nowhere in the autumn of 2020 and why Lydiate was brought back from the Test wilderness to start the following Six Nations.
It is also why Wales have looked at their most balanced when Josh Navidi has been wearing the No. 6 jersey.
Of course, Navidi, Lydiate and Lewis-Hughes are not in this squad - nor were they in the autumn squad - hence why Jenkins shifted to the blindside.
It opened up some possibilities in terms of a dual-breakdown threat, but it did occasionally seem to cause issues in Wales' defence which is still a work in progress.
Even so, the assumption would have been that Jenkins would have continued in the role. Davies and Tshiunza are ones for the future perhaps, but a trip to Dublin on the first weekend of a title defence isn't an ideal place to try things out.
Thankfully for Pivac, he is set to have a blindside available more suited to what he wants.
Ross Moriarty had been considered a doubt for the Six Nations after picking up a shoulder injury against New Zealand in October.
However, in the time he was on the field against the All Blacks, he demonstrated the abrasive nature which the Welsh coaches desire, with one textbook clearout the remedy to many of Wales' breakdown ills.
Crucially for Pivac, Moriarty is just about on the mend.
He will be released from the Wales squad to the Dragons to prove his fitness before the game with Ireland.
It would be easy to assume that, after a long lay-off, a clash with Benetton at Rodney Parade is simply a means of getting minutes under his belt with no intention of being involved in Dublin.
However, it could easily be an audition for the Ireland match. Come through unscathed and he could easily be in the starting XV for the February 5 fixture at the Aviva.
Alongside him, the smart money would be on Taine Basham retaining his place at openside from the autumn given he fits the bill of a mobile, explosive openside who can carry dynamically, while Aaron Wainwright will continue at No. 8 as Pivac continues to mould him into a Test starter in the position.
It is perhaps more galling to Jenkins that - if he isn't selected - it isn't a matter of form, but style.
Since the autumn, in the limited rugby the regions have played, Jenkins has been at times, if not explosive, omnipotent. During parts of their astounding Champions Cup clashes with Toulouse and Harlequins, he seemed to be reading the game ahead of all around him.
As such, it would be a desperate shame if, moving forward, a player of Jenkins' talent were not seen as part of Wales' first-choice back-row.
If anything, though, it just speaks to the depth Pivac has at his disposal.
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