Earth’s surface temperature is heating up
“The era of global boiling has arrived” is what the UN chief, António Guterres, presciently declared last year. In 2024, he has continued to be proven right; a report by the EU’s space programme has found it is “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. The scientists found global temperatures for the past 12 months were 1.62C greater than the 1850-1900 average, when humanity started to burn vast volumes of coal, oil and gas. The chart below shows just how quickly global surface temperatures have climbed, and this year is on track to be the first to hit 1.5C above preindustrial temperatures.
… which we experienced as extreme heat
And for some, it felt even hotter. Southern Europe is facing more and more heat stress days, defined as days that feel hotter than 32C, as the chart below shows. This data is from a report by Copernicus, which found that large parts of the area had two full months with “strong heat stress”, reaching 60 days in total over the season. A few areas in Greece and western Turkey experienced “strong heat stress” on every day of the summer, and about two months of “very strong heat stress”. Though some have the luxury of air conditioning to escape the rocketing temperatures, our reporting this year found groups including migrant workers and prisoners faced stifling, dangerous heat with no respite.
The oceans are heating, too
Last year’s marine heatwaves shocked scientists, as waters warmed to previously unthinkable levels. And it appears this was not an anomaly: in the first half of 2024, ocean surface heat levels soared above the heights they reached the previous year.
… which we experienced as extreme rainfall
Warmer waters have a higher rate of evaporation, which supercharges rain clouds and intensifies rainfall. It makes the devastating hurricanes such as those seen in the US this year far more likely. The chart below, based on Lancet data, shows that 61% of all global land during the period of 1994-2023 had an increase in extreme rainfall compared with the period between 1961 and 1990.
… and drought
While some parts of the world faced extremely heavy rain, others that rely on thriving rivers had their waterways dry up. The Amazon in particular suffered this year, with drought putting inhabitants at risk. The chart below shows almost half of global land area was affected by drought for at least one month this year, and it also displays how drought is increasing as the planet heats.
We continue to emit planet-heating greenhouse gases
We’ve known about the problems coming our way for decades, yet humanity continues to burn fossil fuels, causing gases such as carbon dioxide and methane to build up in the atmosphere and boil the planet. This chart shows how the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is building; the concentration of CO2 reached 420 parts per million (ppm) in 2023, which is 51% greater than before the industrial revolution. Methane concentrations hit 1,934 parts per billion (ppb), a rise of 165% from preindustrial levels, and nitrous oxide hit 336.9 ppb, a rise of 25%.
There is no sign of us stopping
Despite countries having signed up to the Paris Agreement – pledging to reach “net zero” in coming decades, which would mean not emitting more carbon than is absorbed into the land and sea – there is no sign of this happening. This year is on track to set another new record for global carbon emissions. Data indicates planet-heating emissions from coal, oil and gas will rise by 0.8% in 2024. Emissions have to fall by 43% by 2030 for the world to have any chance of keeping to the 1.5C temperature rise target.
Sea levels are rising as ice shrinks
The heating planet is causing ice to melt, and in turn this water goes into the sea, causing levels to rise. Not only that, but it causes a vicious circle. As heating melts the sea ice, it reveals darker water that absorbs more of the sun’s heat, causing more heating. Scientists think the changes in the Arctic may be responsible for worsened heatwaves and floods in Eurasia and North America. Sea levels are inexorably rising as ice on land melts and hotter oceans expand. Sea levels are slow to respond to global heating, so even if the temperature rise is restricted to 2C above preindustrial levels, one in five people in the world will eventually experience their cities being submerged, from New York to London to Shanghai.
But we are building more renewables
A glimmer of hope is that the green economy is finally taking off, with record renewables being built around the world. The Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024 report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) shows that 2023 set a new record in renewables deployment in the power sector by reaching a total capacity of 3,870GW globally. Countries such as China are driving this trend, producing dizzying amounts of renewable energy, but developing nations are lagging behind despite massive economic and development needs. While China’s capacity increased by 63%,and Asia’s as a whole by 69%, Africa’s increased by only 4.6%.
… and driving more electric cars
These charts show how electric cars are taking off across the globe, though their popularity is not evenly distributed. In 2023, just under 60% of new electric car registrations were in China, just under 25% in Europe, and 10% in the US – together making up nearly 95% of global electric car sales combined.
