When the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany, they’ll be doing so with a severe deep passing deficit. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Patrick Mahomes has completed just 10 of 31 passes of 20 or more air yards for 351 yards, one touchdown, five interceptions, and a league-high eight turnover-worthy throws. That likes up for a passer rating of 44.1, and that’s a stark drop from last season, when Mahomes completed 28 of 66 deep targets for 931 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 104.7. Mahomes had just three turnover-worthy deep throws in the entire 2022 season, and that included the entire postseason, including the Chiefs’ Super Bowl win.
Mahomes’ receivers have taken a large share of the blame for this, and based on the tape, that’s legitimate. Justin Watson has been Mahomes’ only reliable deep target, with six deep catches on 12 targets for 180 yards, Other than that? Crickets. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has caught just three deep targets this season, and he was supposed to be Mahomes’ primary deep target post-Tyreek Hill (who Kansas City’s defense will have to deal with, of course).
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” Greg (of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup) and Doug (of Touchdown Wire) get into why this has happened, and how the Chiefs can fix it.
You can watch this week’s full “Xs and Os,” featuring all of Week 9’s biggest NFL matchups (including Ravens-Seahawks) right here:
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Now, let’s unearth some of the issues with this Kansas City deep passing game.
Receivers are A problem, but not THE problem.
“There is trust,” offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said this week about Mahomes’ new receivers. “I think for every receiver it’s a little different based off the routes that they run, and it’s growing. We know that they know that Patrick understands that. It’s just working towards getting the most trust possible with those guys. Again, when you have six or seven receivers and you’re using them all in different ways it probably slows down that a little bit in regards to just getting reps of specific routes with that guy and how that timing works. Then you throw a defense into it, you might throw some injuries, you might throw different factors that come into it. Every one of those guys Patrick has trust in, and they have trust in Patrick. It’s just different levels, and we as a staff have to figure out where those levels are and how we put it into the game plan.”
Head coach Andy Reid echoed those sentiments — not that he’s going to throw anybody under the bus at this point.
“We’re going to be okay there. Just keep getting better, all the way along, it’s not just a wide receiver thing, it’s all of us. A week ago, we were saying how good they did, just keep the consistency going on the offensive side is what we need to do – all the way around, not just the wide receivers.”
Based on the tape, Reid and Nagy could do a better job, and here’s where you see the difference between Nagy and former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, now doing that same work for the Washington Commanders.
The Chiefs aren’t using motion to disrupt in their passing game nearly enough. They’ll move guys around pre-snap, but you don’t see a lot of defensive disadvantage out of it. There are a lot of straight vertical routes and some combos, but Mahomes’ current receivers don’t seem especially adept at separating with speed at the top of the route. They’re formation-diverse, but not in ways that amplify their skills of their receivers, such as they are.
That lack of explosion separation allows Kansas City’s opponents to plaster Mahomes’ receivers through their routes with little resistance. That was the case on this deep incompletion to Watson last Sunday against the Denver Broncos.
The tight ends aren't helping either -- not even Taylor Swift's boyfriend.
So. maybe Mahomes should turn to his tight ends — after all, the Chiefs were highly effective in two-tight end sets last season, and they led the league in 13 personnel — one running back, three tight ends, one receiver.
Well… the numbers this season aren’t so great there, either. And the delineation between short/intermediate throws here are just as alarming as they are everywhere else.
Mahomes with two tight ends on throws of 0-19 air yards: 49 of 63 for 535 yards, 204 air yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a league-high passer rating of 133.8.
Mahomes with two tight ends on throws of 20 or more air yards: 1 of 4 for 27 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 15.6.
Mahomes with three tight ends on throws of 0-19 air yards: 16 of 17 for 233 yards, 102 air yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 94.2.
Mahomes with three tight ends on throws of 20 or more air yards: 0 of 3 for a passer rating of 39.6.
Even Travis Kelce isn’t helping — with or without Taylor Swift in attendance. Kelce hasn’t caught any of the three deep targets this season, and that’s probably not his game anymore, anyway.
If you can't separate with talent, do it with scheme.
If Mahomes’ receivers can’t separate and create explosive plays traditionally, maybe it’s time to roll him out more often with designed and schemed-up deep passes in which Mahomes creates time and opportunities with his legs. It’s certainly and obviously something he can do, and the metrics back that theory up. This season, when throwing deep outside the pocket, Mahomes has completed three of six passes for 127 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 95.8. Not dominant numbers, but a lot of the negative stuff disappears.
On this 44-yard completion to Valdes-Scantling against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 7, Mahomes’ movement to outside the pocket gave MVS the time to run all the way across the field, presenting Mahomes with a favorable look.
The Dolphins do not present a favorable deep-ball matchup.
With their frequency of light boxes and two-deep coverages, the Dolphins under Vic Fangio are designed to take the deep ball away, and they’ve been quite good at it this season, allowing six completions on 29 attempts for 228 yards, no touchdown, no interceptions, five pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 59.8 — seventh-best in the league.
And even if Mahomes rolls out of the pocket more often in this game (as he should), it’s not as it the Dolphins aren’t ready for that hypothetical scenario.
“When you’re a rusher, rush him,” linebacker Jerome Baker said of Mahomes’ scramble drills. “When you’re in coverage and somebody is around, you plaster. Just plaster. Just grab the guy that’s in your zone. That’s the main thing, don’t try to do too much. What gets people in trouble is if you’re a coverage guy and you’re trying to rush him, now you’re leaving someone wide open. Just real simple, just do your job and you’ll be alright.”
Fangio agreed with that idea when he was asked about it.
“We’ve got to try and keep him from running, and hopefully we have a good pass rush and keep him hemmed in and not let him get out. That’s where he hurts you. Their line does a good job of pass protecting. He does a good job of finding seams in the rush to step up through or step up around, or to retreat and get around. He has the total package when it comes to scrambling and it’s tough.”
We’ll see what happens, but here’s one thing we know: The Chiefs have no time to waste when it comes to resuscitating the explosive aspects of their passing game.
