*Audible sigh*
Why do the Chargers hate Justin Herbert? I ask that with only a hint of satire on my breath because the monumental disservice this organization has done to this quarterback is so bad that it’s actually impressive.
For starters, let’s talk about how horrid his defenses have been. Brandon Staley was supposed to be some defensive savior for the Chargers. Instead, their defense got worse after he took over. From 2021-23, the Chargers ranked 27th in defensive EPA per play, and they were 26th in success rate.
On top of that, the Chargers defense allowed 1,507 points in Herbert’s first 60 starts- Herbert put up 1,508 points, and Los Angeles was an even 30-30 in those games.
Since the Chargers drafted Justin Herbert in 2020, they are 30-30. In those 60 games, the Chargers have scored 1,508 points and given up 1,507 points. pic.twitter.com/qw0e8LbRPv
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 26, 2023
In his first 32 starts, the Chargers gave up 27 or more points in 19 of them. That’s 59 percent.
Percentage of starts where team allowed 27+ points
Justin Herbert – 59.4% (19/32)
Patrick Mahomes – 39.4% (28/71)
Drew Brees – 39.1% (119/304)
Aaron Rodgers – 32.3% (73/226)
Philip Rivers – 30.6% (77/252)
Mac Jones – 29.4% (5/17)
Tom Brady – 24.4% (88/361)— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) January 11, 2022
And as of November 13, 2023, no team has lost more games when scoring 30 or more points than the Chargers, who have lost six games when Herbert put up 30+ points. Yet all I seem to hear from Herbert’s biggest naysayers is that he can’t finish, or he can’t get the job done.
Since 2020, no team has lost more games when scoring 30+ points than the Los Angeles Chargers. They've lost a total of 6 games when scoring 30+ points with Justin Herbert starting at QB.
Good night
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) November 13, 2023
The biggest contradiction to those doubters came against the Lions last season. Herbert threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns, tying the game late in the fourth quarter, only for his defense to, once again, allow Detroit to march down the field and kick a field goal to win the game at the buzzer.
Even when the Chargers win those types of games, the defense tries their hardest to let down their extremely talented quarterback. In their matchup against the Vikings last season, Herbert went 40-of-47 for 405 yards and three touchdowns, and went 32-of-38 for 301 yards and three touchdowns against the blitz. His completions, attempts, and passing yards were the most of any quarterback in a game against the blitz since ESPN began tracking such numbers in 2006. Yet despite all of that, the game came down to the final play where the Vikings were in prime scoring position. Luckily, the Chargers picked off a Kirk Cousins pass to win the game, but the point is how was the result even in question when Herbert was systematically destroying Brian Flores’ defense for 60 minutes? Because the defense was that bad. Cousins threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns of his own, and the Vikings had 475 yards of offense.
Herbert also hasn’t had the best luck when it comes to offensive scheming and the players around him. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed significant time with injuries over the last few seasons. Allen has missed 11 games since 2022, and Williams has missed 18, including 14 last season. This has left Herbert to fend for himself with the likes of Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton, DeAndre Carter, and other low-end receivers. While tight end Gerald Everett was a fine safety blanket, there was no one to stretch the field. Even when Allen was healthy, he isn’t exactly the fastest receiver anymore at almost 32 years of age.
Schematically, Herbert hasn’t exactly been dealt the best hand, either. Joe Lombardi didn’t stretch the field with his offense in 2022. There was a lot of out routes six-eight yards downfield, a lot of underneath throws- nothing that took advantage of Herbert’s massive arm. Because of this, Herbert’s yards per attempt went from 7.5 in 2021 to 6.8 in 2022. His yards per completion also went down from 11.3 to a career-low 9.9.
The change from Lombardi to Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator helped some, but the overall concepts of the offense were still focused on the shallow to intermediate portion of the field. Moore’s scheme just utilized the middle of the field more, rather than looking outside the numbers constantly like Lombardi’s offense. Herbert still only had 24 big time throws, per PFF, which was less than the likes of Baker Mayfield and Sam Howell.
Schematically, it’s hard to find comparable situations where a legitimately great quarterback was so handcuffed by the offense in which he was tasked to operate. Aaron Rodgers in the final season of Mike McCarthy is one that instantly comes to mind, but even then, Rodgers was still putting up good numbers. The Packers went 6-9-1 in McCarthy’s final year, but Rodgers was still a Pro Bowler and threw for over 4,400 yards with 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions. However, Rodgers was just 17th in EPA+CPOE composite that season. When Matt LaFleur took over in 2019, Rodgers’ numbers didn’t jump immediately, but in 2020 and 2021, he was the best quarterback in football, winning consecutive league MVPs.
If you want to point to the Steelers and Matt Canada, that’s a fair point to make, but it’s also evident that Kenny Pickett wasn’t, and isn’t anywhere near the level of Herbert. But for the sake of the argument, Pickett is 32nd in EPA+CPOE composite over the last two seasons amongst quarterbacks with at least 320 snaps played. The point being that there are few, if any cases that parallel that of Herbert and the incompetency he has had to consistently deal with.
Now, instead of getting Herbert an offensive coordinator that suits his style of play and his strengths, new head coach Jim Harbaugh hired his buddy Greg Roman, whose offense is arguably the worst fit for a quarterback like Herbert. The Roman offense is best utilized with a mobile quarterback running heavy RPOs and leaning into the run game and utilizing tight ends in the pass game. Justin Herbert isn’t a guy that will run the ball 10-15 times a game on read options like Colin Kaepernick or Lamar Jackson, who Roman has previously worked with- both of which resulted in him being fired because the Greg Roman offense has a very short shelf life. And while the Harbaugh hiring felt like a great one at first, his hiring of Roman garners no confidence in what will come for Herbert, who now doesn’t have a legitimate No. 1 receiver or tight end on the roster, a defense that still needs patching, and an offensive coordinator that mixes with him like oil mixes with water.
Ultimately, it looks as if Herbert’s career path will be similar to that of Matthew Stafford, just sped up a little bit. We all know how talented he is, and he’s showcased how great he is on multiple occasions. He had 69 touchdown passes in his first two seasons, and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of nearly 3-1. What happens in 2024 is anybody’s guess, but my guess is, like Matthew Stafford, he’ll eventually get traded away from a bad organization, go to a team that will use him correctly, and win instantly. Eli Manning dodged the Chargers bullet by saying he wasn’t going to play there, and maybe Herbert should have done the same thing. Because season after season, he’s been tasked with making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, and it looks as if that will be his duty once again in 2024. Herbert deserves better than this. He deserves better than the Chargers, who found the hardest thing to find in the NFL- an elite franchise quarterback- and have completely wasted him.
