The NFL is a cyclical league.
As teams begin to do new things, opposing coaches will change their approach to stop it. That approach to game-planning has led to an ever-changing landscape in college football.
One minute, everyone is lining up with a fullback, and the next, there are more wide receivers on the field.
This shift in playstyles has changed how general managers approach roster construction.
In a hard-capped league like the NFL, there is no throwing money bags at every problem. Instead, teams are forced to adjust and prioritize certain aspects and positions.
As a result, some positions get devalued, allowing other teams to swoop in and attack those market inefficiencies.
While the NFL could undergo its next significant facelift in the coming years, it’s important to analyze some major trends that are currently happening, and how that has affected the Minnesota Vikings in their approach to building a competitive roster.
1. The devaluing of the running back
Frankly, there is no better place to start the discussion of the change in how rosters are built.
A few years ago, running backs were the talk of football, and most teams were searching for a “bell cow” running back to take most of their team’s snaps.
That approach led to some hefty extensions for the league’s best, including a six-year contract extension worth $90 million for Ezekiel Elliot in 2019.
Elliott was paid to be the team’s lead running back, and the plan was for him to rush the ball nearly 300 times a season. However, the reality is that the Cowboys, partially due to Elliott’s declining health, began to give him fewer carries a season.
After rushing the ball 301 times in 2019, Elliot saw 231 carries three seasons later. His snap count also decreased, seeing under half of the Cowboys’ offense snaps in 2022.
Elliott’s reality is no different from any other running back in the NFL.
It’s partially why so many running backs expressed displeasure over the weekend after Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley failed to reach long-term extensions with the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, respectively.
Jacobs and Barkley now have to play a season on a franchise tag before hitting free agency again. For a position that takes as much of a beating as running backs, it’s no surprise anyone who’s played the position is unhappy with this reality.
In a way, running backs are second-class citizens to the NFL.
According to OverTheCap’s Jason Fitzgerald, running backs are suffering a significant lag in their contracts’ average value from 2013 to 2013.
Change in top of the market contract value at every position from 2013 to 2023. RT market exploded. QBs number 2. IDL, guard, WR, and safety all more than doubled. LS, RB, and P are the ones with a major lag on cap growth pic.twitter.com/cR6AGv5nPp
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) July 20, 2023
None of this should be a surprise. As teams gravitate towards more committees in their backfield, they become less willing to pay running backs, meaning running backs often hit the market sooner and more often.
The Minnesota Vikings are currently in the middle of this transition too.
Last season, the Vikings were third in running back spending, spending about $15 million on their running backs. That number was inflated by Dalvin Cook, who counted for $12 million against the cap.
This season, the Vikings are dead last in running back spending, spending just $5.25 million on the position.
Now, what happens if Alexander Mattison, the Vikings’ projected starter for 2023, has a breakout season and proves to be the team’s future at the position?
With a contract that runs through 2024, the Vikings maintain five years of control on Mattison because of their ability to franchise tag a player three times.
This gives the Vikings an easy way to maintain effective running back play but doesn’t offer Mattison much security. This is the major problem revolving around NFL contracts.
While running backs can get paid for three seasons through a franchise tag, it doesn’t offer them much security. And at a position with significant wear and tear concerns, it also means that they can’t maximize their future spending through guaranteed money.
This isn’t to say the Vikings will use three franchise tags on Mattison, but it is to say that contracts need to be adjusted to allow running backs to hit the market sooner.
2. Defensive tackles are becoming more expensive... sort of
On the other side of the spectrum, defensive tackles are becoming the newest position to see a significant boost in salary.
The thing is, it isn’t every defensive tackle that sees a significant payday. Mainly, it’s interior linemen that offer pass-rushing upside that sees more money in their bank accounts.
Four defensive tackles highlight this shift in the NFL — Quinnen Williams (New York Jets), Dexter Lawrence (New York Giants), Daron Payne (Washington Commanders), and Jeffrey Simmons (Tennessee Titans) — and they all signed their extensions this off-season.
All four of those players signed extensions worth $90 million or more. Quinnen Williams, the most recent to sign a contract extension, reset the market by signing a $96 million extension with $66 million guaranteed.
That contract not only makes him the second-highest-paid interior defensive lineman (behind, of course, Aaron Donald), but it would also make him the fourth-highest-paid edge rusher, per Over The Cap data.
As defenses shift towards lighter boxes to stop spread offenses, defensive tackles have far more responsibility in the run game. Most of the league’s best are being asked to play two gaps while making an impact as a pass rusher.
Finding players who can do both at a high level is incredibly challenging, and those that can get paid like high-level pass rushers.
The Vikings currently don’t have a defensive tackle who would fall into that category, but if they find one, expect to pay them a hefty amount.
3. The mysterious case of underpaid centers
Remember how we talked about the landscape of running back contracts?
For the most part, centers are in the same boat.
According to Over The Cap, only seven centers are making more than $9 million a season. Unlike running backs, though, this isn’t exactly a new development, as six centers made over $9 million in 2018.
Center is, for the most part, the glue that holds an offensive line together. While their value is less in blocking elite pass rushers, most centers are responsible for ensuring an offense clicks.
A center’s responsibility includes setting protection, identifying key positions on the defense, and snapping the ball effectively. If any part of that job is done poorly, the offense struggles.
And yet, they’re among the cheapest part of an offensive line.
In some ways, this is a market inefficiency the Vikings could attack. Garrett Bradbury is signed through 2025 and will account for $6 million against the cap in the contract’s final season, meaning the Vikings don’t have to address this position if they don’t want to.
However, finding an even cheaper center might allow them to pool the cap space into different areas, including an extension for Justin Jefferson or T.J. Hockenson. However, releasing Bradbury would require the Vikings to sign a center who can handle the same responsibility as a younger quarterback.
4. Backup quarterbacks are expensive
Backup quarterbacks are the unheralded heroes of any football team, and they’ve begun to get paid as such.
Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap mentioned that backup quarterback salaries have doubled since 2013, meaning they’re beginning to get paid more than some starters.
During the off-season, multiple teams dished out significant money to backup quarterbacks, including the Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders, and Miami Dolphins.
The Commanders, in specific, made Brissett the 25th-highest-paid quarterback with a one-year, $8 million contract.
This rise is likely due to a few things.
As quarterbacks get hurt, contending teams are searching for ways to keep the ship afloat. As a result, teams are more willing to pay backup quarterbacks with starting experience, like Brissett.
The Vikings aren’t committing a lot toward Nick Mullens, as he’s one of the cheaper backup quarterbacks in football.
However, if rookie Jaren Hall doesn’t pan out, expect the Vikings to pay more for a backup quarterback if they draft a franchise quarterback.
