The failings are becoming all too familiar for England — having seized control of the contest after half time, the final quarter arrives and victory slips from their grasp. In each of their three recent Tests against New Zealand, Steve Borthwick’s side have led the All Blacks after the interval and come out on the losing side on 80 minutes.
The circumstances of each has been slightly different and George Ford was the width of a post away from snatching victory at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham on Saturday, but it has become a concerning trend. The good news for Borthwick is that his side have played well in each of their last six games; the bad news is that England have won just two of them. If the hope is that regression to the mean will ensure they come out on the right side of a close game soon enough, the fear is that any dip in their level, perfectly natural in elite sport, will mean that they will no longer be able to stay in the fight to set up match-winning opportunities.
“There’s a development of the team to be in this position now, competing with sides of this calibre that have got the experience,” Borthwick reflected afterwards. “We might not have quite as much. If I reflect back to that team that we put together very quickly for the World Cup, that team found a way to win. We’re now in a situation where we’ve got to make sure that coming into that final quarter we find a way to win.”
The endgame scenarios in each defeat have differed but one common flaw can be found. It is just over 12 months since South Africa dismantled England’s scrum to turn an arm-wrestle of a World Cup semi-final their way, the “Bomb Squad” detonating Borthwick’s bench forward unit. Something similar happened on Saturday against an All Blacks scrum that is probably the second best in the world – while the starting pack held up well, with Ellis Genge and Will Stuart on top against the sizeable duo of Tamaiti Williams and Tyrel Lomax, replacement Fin Baxter was twice penalised on the loosehead after his introduction while a creaking set-piece was key to Ford’s misfire in the final moments.
“If you look at that final quarter there were two scrum penalties and a penalty in the tackle, so three penalties which go against us,” Borthwick explained. “We need to make sure that we win the discipline battle throughout the whole game. I think you’d look at that today and say the England team showed a brilliant discipline for such huge amounts of the game. To win the count was excellent against a very good team shows improvement but we didn’t do that at crucial times.”
On the scrum specifically, Borthwick added: “The personnel is different at different times in the game and we were up against a very good team in the opposition. They did really well, so what we need to do is be better. It’s quite clear, we’ve got to be better in that area than we currently are.”
The retirement of Joe Marler only brings the area into sharper focus. Since that World Cup semi-final, when fitness has allowed, Borthwick has been keen to keep one of either Marler or Dan Cole on the field as a senior scrum head. With Marler having taken his bow, and Cole surely not far behind, new solutions at prop must be found.
The call-up of Asher Opoku-Fordjour to replace Marler could be telling. The Sale Shark is only 20 but is establishing himself as one of the fiercest scrummagers in the Premiership. It was notable that when James Harper was hooked after half-an-hour against Bath at the end of October, coach Alex Sanderson had no qualms with turning to the youngster to stabilise affairs. A decision will need to be made over Opoku-Fordjour’s long-term position — the Rugby Football Union view him as a loosehead and Sale a tighthead — but he, Afolabi Fasogbon and Vilikesa Sela were a formidable trio in England’s triumphant Under 20 World Cup campaign in South Africa this summer.
A much-needed next generation of budding prop stars are coming. Opoku-Fordjour may yet get an opportunity for the senior side this autumn, or in the England A game against Australia at the Twickenham on 17 November, for which a squad will be named on Wednesday. Northampton tighthead Trevor Davison, older at 32 but capped just twice in 2021, may also press for an opportunity behind Stuart and Cole.
But a scrum’s success is about more than just the props, and the identity of England’s bench hooker may also come into question. In Jamie George, Borthwick has one of the world’s best set-piece hookers. Data from Oval Insights shows that George has won as many scrum penalties as any other Six Nations or Rugby Championship hooker this year. Theo Dan, by contrast, is younger and, perhaps crucially, lighter — while the overall statistics since his debut last summer are far from awful, England have conceded an average of 1.9 scrum penalties per 80 minutes with Dan on the pitch in 2024, more than double George’s mark.
The trouble is that the sparky Saracen offers so much explosiveness as a carrier, as shown against the All Blacks, and is seen as a key player of the future by the England staff. Dan passed his head injury assessment (HIA) after Anton Lienert-Brown’s high tackle, and should therefore available for England’s fixture against Australia, but Borthwick could consider turning to veteran Luke Cowan-Dickie, regarded as a hooker with real scrummaging prowess, if he feels a change is necessary.
For the task does not get any easier for England. The Wallabies look set to deploy Taniela Tupou and Will Skelton in tandem for the first time since the opening match of last year’s World Cup; the pair’s combined mass on the tighthead side is not far short of 300kg. South Africa’s scrummaging strength, meanwhile, needs no introduction. As ever with Borthwick, drastic changes are unlikely but answers must be found if England are to fulfil their clear potential.
