Okay, so here is what’s probably going to happen. In the coming weeks, as Liberals are forced to quickly take the true measure of both their party and the country, they will wonder if they should play it safe. And in fairness, with all that’s going on, this reflex—should it come—is understandable. After all, how is anyone in this situation really supposed to know what to do?
A good place to start on most things is with what you do know. Here’s what we know about Pierre Poilievre. As much as Liberals, or even liberals, may think he’s a joke, it appears that most Canadians now don’t. The vision he has for and of Canada—as a consumerist, sectarian, egocentric place—may be uncomfortable for progressives to accept, but for months, Canadians of all ages and most demographics have told pollsters at every opportunity that this is what they want, or at least they like the sound of it. They’ve seen Poilievre’s huckster delivery, his pithy pitches, and his web-bro swagger, and by and large, they’re into it. And yes, Poilievre’s not big on details. But what we know, for now, is that the last thing Canadians want is for the Liberals to find someone who will explain those details to them.
If anyone’s thinking that all the Liberals need is a po-faced technocrat to carefully explain policy to everyone—y’know, someone actually “serious” and ultimately safe—it’s time to stop thinking that. No managers. No highbrows. No elites. This is not the contrast Canadians are looking for against Poilievre. Justin Trudeau has now learned that the hard way, having pivoted from a rolled-sleeves establishment figure, backed by a team of smarty-pants ministers, to a man huddled in the cold outside Rideau Cottage alone, explaining the next bit of federal pandemic policy.
This was, by the way, the real turning point for Trudeau, in my opinion. Looking back, the effort in 2015 to dispel fears of Trudeau’s individual competence, or that he should not be left alone in charge, by surrounding him with a team of likable, qualified, and capable nerds, worked only up until the COVID-19 pandemic, when Trudeau was forced, day after day, to stand by himself at a dais, reminding everyone to wear a mask. It was okay for a spell, but over time, the sense that Trudeau was doing all this stuff on his own—a sentiment encouraged by a highly motivated subset of online commenters targeting a confused and restless nation—gave way to a pervasive feeling that he held far more power than he should, wielded oversized influence for his abilities, and was responsible for far too much, whether it was on COVID-19 or beyond. The old Conservative messaging about his being in over his head had resurfaced with a terrifying spin, since now Trudeau really was in charge. Despite the Liberal minority win in 2021, it never felt like Trudeau recovered from the pandemic communications grind. But can you blame him? Name someone who did.
Anyway, if the best the Liberals do for a leader is to pick someone who thinks that speaking calmly and slowly, providing overview and context, and appealing to everyone’s better nature will beat Poilievre and the powerful infosphere in which he has embedded himself, it’s time to get real. Liberals can choose to fight Poilievre that way, but if they do, they will lose.
The thing with Poilievre is that he invites you to get in his face. He does it to journalists, deliberately provoking them into arguments about their bias or their funding. He does it with his fellow MPs and parliamentary committee guests. He does it in his online videos, speaking directly to the camera as he promises more money in your pocket and a great big house for you to live in. He even does it when he’s waiting for a plane. At first, this perpetually combative stance feels like a strength. In reality, it’s his biggest weakness, and one Liberals can and should exploit. To be clear, this doesn’t mean engaging him in those arguments or pointing out perceived lapses in morals, ethics, logic, or technicalities. You take him on where it really counts: on his plans and ideas for Canada. In other words, you fight him on the same ground without fighting him in the same space.
Poilievre is making a populist promise to Canadians that the right government can make their lives better—make the things they buy cheaper, make the homes they want more affordable, and make the elites they hate pay. By and large, this isn’t so different from what progressives like the Liberals can also promise. (As it happens, another by-product of the pandemic was that the old left–right dichotomy all but collapsed; people now reside along more diagonal lines.) The critical difference being that, outside the post-pandemic years, the Liberals have more credibility on a lot of it. Alongside the original promise in 2015 that Trudeau would be the head of a team were the commitments that the Liberals would bring hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty, lower taxes for the middle class, protect the climate, and make the richest Canadians pay their fair share. I can’t sit here and tell you that a lot of other weird or bad stuff didn’t happen along the way (the list is long), but those good things happened too.
Last month, Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to the prime minister, wrote a newsletter post suggesting that all the infighting and Trudeau’s looming departure risked bringing the Liberal Party right back to where Team Trudeau found it in the post–Michael Ignatieff fallout zone. And maybe so. But with any luck, the Liberals can avoid that fate. What they’ll need is someone who can build a working- and middle-class coalition around a new progressive populism and who’s focused less on contrasting Poilievre and more on issues he talks about, like affordability and fairness. After all, these issues don’t belong to him but to whoever can best solve them.
Liberals should pick someone who can honestly and with conviction unite Canadians around progressive ideas, including good policies that are already in motion: dismantle corporate monopolies and eliminate fee-flation, implement a federal jobs plan, invest directly in local media beyond just the CBC, make the public service a talent magnet, get our military back in shape, create affordable and sustainable housing, and help rebuild a health care system that works for everyone. These are good things Liberals can do. The stakes are high. Now is the time to be bold, not boring.
