Wheat is on the verge of rotting in Ukraine’s warehouses. Piles of it have been stuck in storage since Russia invaded in February and imposed a blockade on Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, from where the bulk of wheat is exported. This immediately disrupted global wheat exports from the two countries, which together provide 30% of world supply, and completely cut off Ukraine’s 9% share.
The blockade sparked global panic about where to buy wheat, particularly in countries in north Africa and the Middle East which rely on grain imports from the region and already face food shortages on top of economic and climate crises. Global wheat prices soared.
Ukraine lags behind China, the US, Canada and India in its wheat production but most of the harvests from these countries are consumed locally. With large wheat reserves, India initially appeared best placed as an alternative global supplier after the invasion, but the government said it is prioritising its own population after an intense heatwave damaged some of this year’s harvests.
Data and source notes
Average wheat production by region
The United States Department of Agriculture. 2016-2020; five-year wheat production average, thousand metric tonnes.
Russian controlled areas
Rochan Consulting, the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Critical Threats Project. Accurate as of 7 June 2022.
Black Sea activity and shipping routes to the Middle East and north Africa (Mena) and East Africa
All data was provided by Maritime intelligence firm MariTrace. Bulk carrier data shows activity on i) 23 February and ii) 4 April 2022.
‘Major shipping routes’ is indicative of commonly travelled journeys from the ports of Odesa in Ukraine and Novorossiya in Russia to a single major port per country in the Middle East, north Africa and east Africa.
“High-risk” areas correspond to Joint War Committee zones.
Net wheat importers
Share of wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine provided by the International Grains Council (IGC). Net importers in north Africa and the Middle East with average annual all-wheat purchases (wheat, durum and wheat flour (grain equivalent)) of more than 0.5m tonnes over the period from 2016/17-2020/21 (July/June) and a combined (Russia and Ukraine) import share of more than 30%.
WFP food basket price change, for the Mena region
World Food Programme. Percentage price rise between December 2021 and March 2022 has been calculated from the figures showing cost in local currency unit/per person/per month.
Food insecurity, east Africa
Prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity in the total population in east Africa, SOFI report, 2021, UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Additional source: Dr Monika Tothova, FAO economist.
Current food security outlook
Countries designated by the World Food Programme’s Hunger Map, as of 7 June, 2022.
