Stefon Diggs was paying attention when Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill reset the market. He made sure we all knew about it on Twitter.
The Buffalo Bills were paying attention as well. They took a look at a landscape in which wide receiver had become the most expensive non-quarterback position in the NFL and realized the value they had in their All-Pro pass catcher. On Wednesday, Buffalo made Diggs the league’s fourth $100 million wideout by signing him to a four-year, $104 million contract extension.
It’s a move that will keep the 28-year-old Diggs tied to western New York through 2027. And, despite a headline-grabbing number, it’s a deal that could be a bargain for the Bills.
Another mega deal: Bills reached agreement with WR Stefon Diggs on a 4-year, $104 million extension that includes $70 million guaranteed, sources tell ESPN. Deal ties Diggs to Buffalo for six more years, at $124.1M, with the intent from both sides to have him retire in Buffalo. pic.twitter.com/ptSQ3eE54D
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 6, 2022
There’s no denying Diggs’ role in Buffalo’s rise from AFC East punchline to Super Bowl contender. His arrival in 2020 proved to be the missing piece in Josh Allen’s development. The quarterback who’d been a collection of raw tools found the glue to stick them all together thanks to the WR1 that topped his aerial wish list.
Allen’s passer rating rose by nearly 22 full points that fall. The Bills’ offense ranked second in both scoring and yards gained. Buffalo won its division by three full games and advanced to the AFC Championship Game. Diggs led the league with 127 catches for 1,535 yards and was a first-team All-Pro.
That makes him the kind of huckleberry Adams was for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. He’s a year younger than the former Packer and the same age as Hill. Yet when you consider the contracted seasons each player has after their latest extensions, you see Diggs is getting paid significantly less per season.
Diggs had two seasons left on the bargain five-year, $72 million deal he signed with the Minnesota Vikings in 2018. With those included, this comes out to six years and $121.4 million of total value. That $20.7 million average salary is a reasonable payday in 2022. It could be a bargain by 2025.
Here’s how Diggs stacks up against the five other wide receiver megadeals signed by similarly productive receivers between 2019 and 2022:
Diggs’ closest salary comparison is Amari Cooper, who signed his deal two years ago. That’s fair value for a player who backslid a bit in 2021 — while he still had more than 1,200 receiving yards, his catch rate fell precipitously from 76.5 percent to 63.8 — but remains the kind of player opposing defensive coordinators have to gameplan around.
That contract brings some immediate relief for a Bills team that entered Wednesday with the league’s worst cap situation — an estimated $1.2 million over the spending limit. His restructured deal could free up more than $9 million, per Over the Cap.
Let’s see how that would measure up against future salary caps. We don’t know the exact structure the Bills’ offer, but we can assume that the cap gymnastics of Diggs’ deal likely means the franchise will parse out around $115 million of cap hits between 2023 and 2027. Depending on how general manager Brandon Beane spreads that out, Diggs could be much more affordable than his WR cohort.
We’ll assume the salary cap rises at the average 6.5 percent rate it has the last two decades. Here’s how Diggs’ average cap hit of $23 million after 2022 looks compared against his colleagues.
That’s a reasonable cost for a player who has demonstrably made the Bills better, though just how it compares will depend on the contract’s fine print.
We can also assume receiver salaries will continue to rise over that span thanks to a league where passing is more important than ever. It’s not unreasonable to suggest players like Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson could be making more than $35 million annually by 2025. Buffalo will be paying its WR1 comfortably less, creating extra room to spend around Diggs and Allen in hopes of keeping a championship core together.
But … should the Bills be worried about his age? Let’s dive in:
