The Los Angeles Lakers have survived a turbulent 2022-23 regular season that was filled with numerous key injuries and personnel changes, and their perseverance has been rewarded with a trip to the NBA Playoffs.
As the seventh seed, they will take on the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies in the first round starting on Sunday at noon Pacific time.
The Grizzlies appear to be slight favorites, but there is no shortage of pundits who feel the Lakers can or will emerge from this series victorious.
If Los Angeles takes care of these important points of emphasis, it should take care of Memphis without too much trouble.
Limit turnovers
The Grizzlies allowed the sixth-most turnovers in the regular season, and with their young, athletic and explosive roster, they capitalize on mistakes, as they ranked eighth in points off turnovers.
LeBron James and crew committed 20 turnovers in their play-in tournament game versus the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday, and a number of them were unforced or even careless turnovers.
The Lakers must limit themselves to less than 15 turnovers a game in order to contain Memphis’ explosive potential.
Fast-break points
Related to the previous point is the need for the Lakers to limit how many points the Grizzlies end up scoring in transition, whether they come off turnovers or defensive rebounds.
Memphis ranked second with 18.0 fast-break points per game, and cutting off that part of its attack would greatly help L.A.
At the same time, L.A. must get out and run itself. It was fourth in fast-break points, and it was also fourth in pace. The Lakers aren’t a very effective offensive team in a halfcourt setting, and they tend to get in trouble when they walk the ball upcourt, settle halfcourt and milk the shot clock.
In addition, Memphis was third in defensive rating during the regular season, and the best way to overcome a very good defense like that is to up-tempo the game and get either fast breaks or looks in early offense before it can get set defensively.
Anthony Davis must dominate
Davis had perhaps his best regular season ever, as he established career highs in rebounds per game and shooting percentage. But on occasion, he hasn’t played up to his standards offensively, partly because opposing teams have thrown double teams at him, both with and without the ball.
In his first game versus Memphis this season, Davis had 28 points, 19 rebounds and five blocked shots, and in his second meeting against it he tallied 30 points, 22 boards and two blocks.
That’s the type of production the Lakers will need from him on a regular basis in order to win.
Davis will get a break, as Grizzlies starting center Steven Adams will be out, likely for the entire series, but he will still have to go up against Jaren Jackson Jr., who is a leading candidate for the Defensive Player of the Year award.
If Davis gets Jackson into foul trouble, Memphis could be in a lot of trouble without Adams or reserve forward Brandon Clarke, who won’t play due to a torn Achilles.
Contain Ja Morant
This will likely be the biggest concern for the Lakers, their coaching staff and their fans.
Morant is one of the best young stars in the NBA, and he is as explosive a point guard as there has ever been. He averaged 26.2 points and 8.1 assists a game in the regular season, and he is always a threat to leap and posterize opponents in any given game.
But the one weakness in his game is 3-point shooting. He made 65.2 percent of his shots from within three feet and well over 40 percent of his shots from three feet out to the 3-point line, but from 3-point range, he shot just 30.7 percent.
Not only will the Lakers need to wall him out of the paint, but shadowing him as he brings the ball upcourt, especially in transition, will be very important. They need to make him rely heavily on outside shots and make him hit such shots with a hand in his face whenever possible.
In his first game versus L.A. this season, Morant went just 9-of-29 as it wiped out a 13-point deficit and ended the Grizzlies’ 11-game winning streak. But in his second meeting against the Lakers, he went off in the third quarter for 28 of his 39 points in a 121-109 Memphis win.
Hitting 3-point shots
All season long, the Lakers had their troubles from downtown, shooting just 34.6 percent from that distance, which ranked 25th in the NBA.
But after the All-Star break, the new addition they made allowed them to show some improvement and rank 13th in that category with an accuracy of 36.9 percent during that span.
Against Minnesota on Tuesday, the Lakers struggled for much of the game from beyond the arc, and although they perked up a bit in the second half and overtime, they made just 32.2 percent of their 3-point shots overall.
The Grizzlies like to shut down the paint and make their opponents live off 3-pointers. They ranked near the bottom of the league in 3-point attempts allowed, which is a feature and not a bug, as head coach Taylor Jenkins previously served under Mike Budenholzer, the head man of the Milwaukee Bucks, who likes to give up lots of 3-point attempts in order to clog the paint defensively.
For L.A., players such as D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Troy Brown Jr., Malik Beasley and Dennis Schroder will have to hit from the land of plenty in order to open things up for James and Davis while making Memphis pay for its defensive strategy.
