College football’s regular season officially concludes Saturday when Army meets Navy in Philadelphia for the annual rivalry game. The Black Knights and Midshipmen own this date in college football – typically the second Saturday in December – as no other FBS game is being played. Conference championships have been decided and bowl games have been booked. All that’s left is to settle a battle between the Mids and Cadets at a neutral site, surrounded by pageantry, pomp and a bit of hate.
Neither Army nor Navy is bowl-eligible this year, so, for the seniors on these teams, this will be the last college football game they ever play in before going off to serve in the military. The players at Army and Navy don’t get fifth, or sixth or seventh seasons of eligibility. They don’t get to transfer for their final year of college ball. For a lot of them, this is the biggest stage they’ll ever play on, and that all-out effort often gives the game some special moments.
Saturday’s game – which kicks off at 3 p.m. on CBS – marks the 123rd meeting between Army and Navy, and the 90th time the game has been played in Philadelphia. Navy leads the all-time series 62-53-7, but the teams have exchanged victories in each of the past four years.
Navy is set to wear uniforms honoring the academy’s history of producing astronauts, and Army is sporting some unique threads too.
It should be an entertaining game for fans and bettors alike.
It's that week: the @ArmyWP_Football and @NavyFB game is on @CBSSports at 3 ET on Saturday!@CoachNeuheisel thinks Army will come out victorious, while @JonesN4mo, @randycrossFB and @AaronTaylorCFB are picking Navy 👀 pic.twitter.com/FGGlPk32po
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) December 7, 2022
The spread has moved both ways at various sportsbooks in recent days. As of Thursday morning, BetMGM and DraftKings had Navy favored by 2.5 points.
It has become increasingly popular among bettors to put money on the under in games between two Service Academy teams. And it’s hard to argue the math behind it. Since 2005, the under in games played between Army, Navy and Air Force has hit 83% of the time, and it’s a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 games, according to Bet Labs.
A big reason why this happens is that the three FBS Service Academies know each other so well. They largely recruit the same players and play incredibly similar styles of offense. These are also, arguably, the most important games on their respective schedules. So, there’s a ton of preparation that goes into these games for the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy, and it can often result in low-scoring defensive battles. These triple-option-heavy teams also rarely pass, which can make for some results that don’t light up the scoreboard.
However, it seems like oddsmakers might be wising up to this. A lot of books set the over-under for the Army-Navy game at around 32.5 points, which is incredibly low. In fact, it is the lowest point total set for a game between the Midshipmen and Black Knights since 2005.
But instead of putting money down on the final score over-under, a smart bet could be to bet the over for the first half. Here’s why:
- BetMGM and DraftKings have both set the first half over-under at 16 points.
- In the nine games played between teams coached by Army’s Jeff Monken and Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo, the average first half scoring total is exactly 16 points.
- In those nine games, the scoring total in the first half has been higher than 16 points five times. And in the past five meetings between Army and Navy, the first half total has gone over 16 three times. One of the times it didn’t was in 2020, when the game was played in a cloud of fog at West Point.
- In Navy’s last four games, the Mids are scoring an average of 10.7 points in the first half while allowing 14.25. If that holds true in this game, that hits the first half over.
- In four of Army’s last five games – I excluded the Black Knights’ win over UMass because, well, UMass is terrible – the Black Knights are scoring and average of 10.7 points in opening halves while allowing 7.5 points. Again, if that holds, that’ll hit the over.
So, the math and averages tell us that Army and Navy should combine to score more than 16 combined points in the first half. Both BetMGM and DraftKings opened the odds on the first half over hitting at -110.
Inbox: It’s Army-Navy week, so three Midshipmen flight crews flew over West Point and dropped these ping-pong balls and leaflets out of the air.
Yup. This is the best rivalry in college football. pic.twitter.com/Opie4YzKdM
— Mitchell Northam (@primetimeMitch) December 6, 2022
One other bet to consider: Navy (ML)
The Mids beat Army last season, and one could argue that this Black Knights team isn’t as good as that one. Also, Navy should feel pretty good going into this game, having beaten UCF in its regular season finale.
Moreover, Navy has had three weeks without games to prepare for Army. Under Niumatalolo, when the Mids have at least three weeks to prepare for the Black Knights, they are 4-0. Navy is also 11-2 against Army at Lincoln Financial Field.
And while Navy has just four wins this season, they did play the 26th toughest schedule in FBS based on opponent winning percentage. Army, based on Sports-Reference’s strength of schedule statistic, played the 102nd toughest schedule in the country.
