Over the past three seasons, with Matt LaFleur as their head coach, the Green Bay Packers’ wide receivers have caught 643 passes for 8,312 yards and 67 touchdowns on 980 targets, with the best success coming in 2021 (244/3,107/27). Davante Adams accounted for almost 50% of their production at wideout over this span (321/3,924/34 on 445 targets). His loss in the offseason leaves a glaring WR1 hole in Green Bay’s offense. Unfortunately, replacing greatness doesn’t happen by plugging a name into the starting slot. There has been much attention placed on the Packers’ receiving corps this preseason. So let’s see where they stand as of now, and how it shakes out for fantasy managers:
Tale of the Tape
Allen Lazard
In the early season of the fantasy market, Lazard is the consensus WR1 for Aaron Rodgers. He enters his fifth year in the NFL after signing as an undrafted free agent in 2018. His edge comes from his size (6’5” and 225 pounds).
He made 25 starts over the last three seasons, leading to 108 catches for 1,441 yards and 14 touchdowns on 158 targets. Over this span, Lazard missed eight of 49 potential games. Green Bay had him on the field for 767 of 1,172 plays (65.4%) as their WR2. Despite an excellent opportunity on the opposite side of Adams, he averaged only 3.8 targets--yes, 3.8 targets. The 49ers held him to one target in two matchups (1/42 and 1/6), and the Chiefs did the same in Week 9 (1/20/1).
On the positive side, Lazard started to gain momentum in three of his final five starts in the regular season (6/89/1, 6/72/1 and 5/75/2) on 19 combined targets. He ran about 45% of his routes out of the slot for the year.
Fantasy Take: The first hurdle for Lazard to clear is proving he can beat WR1 coverage. His catch rate (68.4) grades well over the last three seasons, but he didn’t create enough open looks to be considered the Packers’ number one wideout this year. Based on my latest projections, he works best as a backend WR4 in PPR formats. If Lazard can get six targets a game, his catch ceiling will be between 65 and 70.
Amari Rodgers
Over four seasons at Clemson, Rodgers caught 181 passes for 2,144 yards and 15 touchdowns on 237 targets. He took advantage of his increased opportunity in 2020, leading to 77 catches for 1,020 yards and seven scores on 102 targets. In his career, Rodgers has an elite catch rate (76.3) while doing most of his work over the short areas of the field.
His game should rise to another level under the guidance of Aaron Rodgers. He gives Green Bay an open-field runner with the route running and hands to succeed out of the slot. His first challenge is improving his release vs. press coverage.
Green Bay had Amari Rodgers on the field for only 103 snaps in his rookie season while gaining 56 yards on four catches. In his first preseason game this summer, he returned two kickoffs for 69 yards (long of 50) while coming off the bench late in the game to secure his only target for a 22-yard touchdown.
Fantasy Take: As of Aug. 16, in the land of Google searches, there has been minimal written about Rodgers’s potential ceiling. Yet, I stand in the back of the room screaming and hitting drafters over the head that he is the Packer wideout to roster in 2022. There should be a circle next to Rodgers’s name before you start drafting. His college resume, paired with the loss of Adams, points to a breakout season. He has a possession skill set, giving him 100 catch upside with over 1,000 yards and some value in touchdowns. I expect him to steal Randall Cobbs’s job early in the season. For a comparison, look back at Keenan Allen’s progression in his rookie season.
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Romeo Doubs
Over four seasons at Nevada, Doubs caught 225 passes for 3,322 yards and 26 touchdowns over 357 targets. His highlight season (80/1,109/11) came in 2021. He brings strong hands, but Doubs has questions about his release and route running. His early success should come in stretching the field.
The summer PUP list for Christian Watson created an excellent opportunity for Doubs in the Packers’ training camp. He profiles as an outside deep threat, with more layers to his foundation skill set. His positive news from training camp pushed his ADP up draft boards in August.
Fantasy Take: In my early projections, I still don’t have Doubs listed as a top five wideout for the Packers (my spreadsheet is set up to project only five wide receivers), so there is the appearance that I’m sleeping at the wheel with Doubs. I’ve looked closely at this, and I sense that Watson is the player I need to dump (slow start in camp due to an injury) until Cobb or Sammy Watkins remove themselves from the equation. In the end, Doubs should be a top three projected wideout for Green Bay, and I will update his status next week after seeing one more preseason game. With that said, his ceiling may only be 50 catches based on his role expecting to be an outside wide receiver.
Sammy Watkins
The Bills drafted Watkins in 2014 with the fourth overall pick. He rewarded them with an excellent start to his career over 29 games (65/982/6 and 60/1,047/9 on 224 targets). Unfortunately for Watkins, a foot injury in 2016 (eight missed games) led to him wandering his way through the next five years.
Watkins flashed scoring ability (eight scores) with the Rams in 2017 before getting his chance to reignite his career over three seasons in Kansas City (40/519/3, 52/673/3, 37/421/2 – 14 missed games). With the Chiefs, he did deliver six impactful games (6/100, 8/107/2, 4/114, 9/198/3, 7/114/1, 7/82/1). In 2021, Watkins was active over the first four weeks (4/96, 4/44, 4/68, 4/49 on 29 targets) with the Ravens before battling thigh and knee issues for the remainder of the year.
Fantasy Take: His experience gives him the inside track to start in Week 1 for Green Bay, but the buzz in his game is gone. His skills are diminished, but he still has a chance to flash in a contest or two, reminding me of a Toby Keith lyric (“I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was”). In the end, Aaron Rodgers can’t help him get open consistently, so Watkins looks to be a short-term filler until one of the Packers’ wide receivers blows by him on the depth chart.
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Randall Cobb
From 2012-15, Cobb was a top two wideout for the Packers. He caught 281 passes for 3,503 yards and 30 touchdowns on 407 targets (7.7 per matchup) over 53 games. His skill set and ability to get open faded over the next three years (60/610/4, 66/653/4, 38/383/2), pushing him to find a new home in 2019 (DAL – 55/828/3) and 2020 (HOU – 38/441/3). His ties to Aaron Rodgers led to a return to Green Bay last year (28/375/5) for 12 games. Cobb missed the final five weeks of the regular season with a groin issue. He was on pace to be on the field for 568 plays, putting him in a rotational WR3 role with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who also missed five contests.
Fantasy Take: Cobb should open the 2022 season as the Packers’ slot receiver (on the field for about 75% of the time in that role last year). He finished 2021 with only 39 targets in 12 games (3.3 per game), with a peak of six chances in Week 4. The writing on the wall says his days are numbered, meaning Cobb will be passed on the depth chart early in the season.
Christian Watson
Over four seasons and 52 games at North Dakota State, Watson caught 105 passes for 2,140 yards and 14 touchdowns while gaining 20.4 yards per catch. His best success came in 2021 (43/801/7), highlighted by two matchups (5/163/1 and 4/106/1).
Watson earned his trip into the NFL by offering an excellent combination of size (6’5” and 210 pounds) and speed (4.36 40-yard dash). He is a hard worker, but much of his resume comes from big plays vs. weaker competition. His route running needs to improve to be more fantasy and pro-relevant early in his career. However, Watson does have an explosive gear with the ball in his hands.
He landed on the PUP list in late July due to his recovery from minor knee surgery earlier in the offseason. Watson returned to practice in mid-August, but his missed practice puts him in catch-up mode to earn a starting job for Week 1.
Fantasy Take: In the early draft season, Watson appeared to be over-drafted based on my outlook (17/292/1) and the emergence of Doubs in training camp. His game is all about the big play, but he’ll need time to develop. As a result, I view him as a trap (based on his ADP) and won’t draft him in any league in 2022.
The best part about fantasy football is that everyone has an opinion, and they get to bet their thoughts on draft day. Aaron Rodgers is an excellent quarterback who makes the players around him better. However, he can’t turn a declining veteran player into a stud. The eyeballs in the Packers’ camp have to be on their young receivers, as one of them will emerge as a starting fantasy player as the season progresses. My one and only target in this receiving corps is Amari Rodgers.
