As we slide into the midway portion of the season, a growing number of teams coming back from their bye weeks and injuries beginning to play a larger role in the fortunes of franchises, there is more data to base wagers on.
This week, we run the no-huddle offense with one QB, one running back, and three receivers looking to hit pay dirt on Sunday.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Carolina Panthers WR DJ Moore OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moore would appear to be the only fantasy talent left in Carolina, but the Atlanta Falcons defense is brutal against the pass. In their last six games, the Falcons have allowed a whopping 12 receivers to post 73 or more receiving yards.
Moore is a talented player who is off the trade table, despite the Panthers being in a full-on fire sale prior to the trade deadline. Moore should likely catch six or more passes. If he does that, this number is far too low.
4
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry OVER 99.5 rushing yards (-140)
This is a strange combination – a huge number and a heavy investment to get there. But that is for a reason.
For starters, the Houston Texans are allowing 165 rushing yards a game – the most in the NFL. Tennessee is a team that loves to run and let Henry wear them down.
Additionally, if Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is out, Malik Willis will RPO the Texans to death. Tannehill doesn’t provide that option unless the crashing DE or OLB is too obvious. Henry is likely going to get 25 carries, at a minimum, and that doesn’t take many big plays to hit this number with such volume.
Given the disparity of investment in the Over and the Under (+105), expect this number to go up by four or five yards by game time to even things out.
3
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford UNDER 260.5 passing yards (-115)
By now you probably know about the regular-season dominance in the rivalry between the Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams won the one game that counted most – the NFC title game last year – but the 49ers have routinely dominated.
This number is based on the assumption that the Rams won’t be able to run the ball and will become one-dimensional. That plays into the 49ers’ hands defensively. This is a big number for a team that may well lose, but won’t get blown out.
He will likely get close, but not all the way there. This may devolve into a field position game, which doesn’t lend itself to gaudy passing numbers.
2
Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the most injury-depleted defenses in the league, which is why the team is on the precipice of having its first losing season in almost 20 years.
The Steelers are allowing 275 passing yards a game (29th in the league). It is difficult to imagine the Eagles coming close to that number with Smith not providing 20 percent of that total.
1
Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert OVER 68.5 rushing yards
Nobody has more carries of 10 yards or more than Mostert, and nobody else is even close in Miami’s rushing offense to prevent him from hogging the vast majority of the carries.
Given that Mostert is the primary running back in the attack going up against the league’s 31st-ranked run defense (163 yards a game), it’s difficult to find a way that Mostert doesn’t hit this modest number.
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