This is the first week where the slate of games is limited with four teams on bye, but we’ve tracked down five prop bets that should help take you to the pay window.
This week, there are five picks of players who have a limited exposure to their Week 6 opponents. That lack of familiarity plays into the selections – four projected to go over their yardage number and one to go under.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
The New York Giants are allowing 132 rushing yards a game and have routinely been gashed on the ground. When you’re talking about the Ravens’ running game, it starts with Jackson. There are a half-dozen plays called for him as planned runs and more where he drops to pass and bails from the pocket. He has topped this number each of the last four games against better run defenses than the Giants, so I’m all over this one.
4
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb OVER 89.5 rushing yards (-115)
The New England Patriots’ run defense has been capable of being abused on the ground. The Patriots have faced two teams that have been run-heavy this season – the Packers and Ravens. Green Bay ran for 188 yards, while the Ravens ran for 203 yards. If the Browns come anywhere near those kind of numbers, Chubb will likely be involved in more than half those yards.
3
Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey UNDER 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
It’s not that I don’t believe McCaffrey will get his yards against the Los Angeles Rams, but I think more of them will be through the air. The Rams have been a huge disappointment but haven’t faced a dog like Carolina. I see a double-digit lead early that will make Carolina much more likely to pass, which will limit McCaffrey’s rushing attempts. To go over this number, he’ll need to pop a 25-yard run to make it happen.
2
Green Bay WR Allen Lazard OVER 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Packers are going to look to pass against the New York Jets’ pass defense. Lazard hasn’t stepped up as the WR1 in the offense but is a key to the pass game. He has caught a TD in three of the four games in which he has played and had 116 yards in the other. The Jets have allowed six receivers to top 85 yards in five games and Lazard needs roughly half that to hit the Over on this one.
1
San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Atlanta Falcons have allowed six receivers to top 75 receiving yards this season and most of them were the primary receivers in the opposing offense that were expected to have strong production. The 49ers like to run and control time of possession, but they also throw enough to maintain balance to keep defenses from flooding the box. Samuel has an Over/Under projecting five receptions. If he hits that number, he hits the Over.
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