This week we go running back-heavy, making three elite RB picks – two to hit over their appointed number and one going under. We also like an underachieving wide receiver to come in over his number and an emerging quarterback to score a touchdown that doesn’t involve passing.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jerry Jeudy has been ruled out of this game and the Las Vegas Raiders aren’t the type of defense that tends to double receivers with any regularity. The passing game in Denver has struggled all season, but with Jeudy and K.J. Hamler both ruled out, the passing game is going to have to go through Sutton one way or another. Five receptions will likely all that will be needed to hit this number.
4
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields scores a rushing/receiver touchdown (+135)
The Bears offense has taken a completely different turn once the playcalling incorporated Fields rushing the ball a lot more. He has scored at least one rushing touchdown in the last four games, and the Atlanta Falcons defense is allowing three touchdowns a game on average. If Chicago is going to score three touchdowns, I’m confident that one of them will be a run by Fields.
3
Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook OVER 78.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Vikings have won seven straight games, and Cook has bailed him out on the ground in the games where quarterback Kirk Cousins has struggled. Minnesota has won seven straight one-score games and have a penchant for keeping games close, and Cook has been a consistent threat. He has rushed 17 or more times in six of Minnesota’s nine games – all wins. If he gets 17 carries, he should hit this number.
2
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor UNDER 85.5 rushing yards (-115)
There’s no questioning that Taylor can eclipse this number, but it would likely require close to 20 rushing attempts. Coming off a self-inflicted loss to the Commanders last Monday, the Eagles are going to be looking for blood and will keep their foot on the gas even if they get a big early lead. If the Colts fall behind by double digits early, they will be forced to pass and that could sharply limit Taylor’s production in the second half, making this a difficult number to hit.
1
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
In the pathetic NFC South, even a 3-7 team like the Saints are still alive for the division title if they can string together some wins. They’re favored at home against the Los Angeles Rams, and, if they’re going to win, it will require a steady diet of Kamara as both a rusher and receiver. I think he can hit 50 receiving yards, so I’m more than willing to take this number.
