There are times when deadlines kill those who are trying to proffer betting advice. This is one of those weeks. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen hasn’t “officially” been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings. The fact the line in the game didn’t go “off the board” when it dropped from Buffalo being a 9.5-point favorite to 3.5 points instantly on Wednesday and bets were being taken should have churched some up into belief that Allen isn’t playing.
Regardless of that, Case Keenum and Stefon Diggs are in for a revenge play. The thrower and the recipient of the Minneapolis Miracle get their chance to exact some organizational revenge. Win or lose, Diggs is going to get the ball in his hands at least 10 times. I don’t care what the Over/Under is, he’s getting his. However, at this time, I can’t make that bet.
Deadlines suck, but that number will come out at some point. Take the Over.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry UNDER 107.5 rushing yards (-115)
That’s a huge number, and it’s there for a reason. Henry has rushed for more than 100 yards in each of the last five games. For the record, he’s done that before – but he has never hit six. Throw in that QB Ryan Tannehill is coming back and the Denver Broncos are coming off their bye with two weeks to prepare for the obvious, look for the rare “nine-in-the-box” formations. It may take 30 carries to hit this number.
4
Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle OVER 70.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tyreek Hill is the big name and puts up the big numbers, but Waddle is getting his at the same time – just not without the fanfare. Waddle has 85 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games, but Tyreek gets all the talk. By design, the Cleveland Browns defense stops the run. Teams that get their yards do it through the air. I’ll take my chances, because the last thing Miami wants to do get into a battle for field position.
3
New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley OVER 95.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Giants’ passing game is relatively nonexistent. Barkley is the show. The Houston Texans allow 180 rushing yards a game. If the Texans allow slightly more than half that average, Barkley hits this number. Considering that both teams are built to run and in it’s being played in New Jersey, I’m down with this.
2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady UNDER 284.5 passing yards (-115)
Is Brady capable of throwing for 285 yards? Of course. He’s the G.O.A.T. Will he do it in Europe against a Cinderella Seattle Seahawks team that ideally runs 35 times a game and tries to prevent the opposing offense from getting in a groove? Only if Brady is behind by double digits will he hit this number, and there’s little reason to believe that’s going to happen. I’d be in on the Under at 250.
1
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
Patrick Mahomes has an Over/Under of more than 300 passing yards against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense with a reputation of stopping the run. Against a lot of teams, that would seem absurd. The Chiefs don’t care about running. If Mahomes gets in the vicinity of that benchmark, how is Kelce not responsible for more than 26 percent of that total? It may take eight catches, but he’ll get those yards.
