This week we make our picks on a group of underachievers – stars who haven’t blown up as expected this year along with guys who have been career underachievers for the most part.
The Week 4 picks include a pair of draft-inflated quarterbacks fighting for their NFL lives as starters, two of the top three running backs in most fantasy drafts, and a sneaky wide receiver pick who has consistently blown up against his Week 4 opponent.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Washington Commanders QB Carson Wentz UNDER 232.5 passing yards (-115)
In three games this season, the Dallas Cowboys defense hasn’t allowed a quarterback to get within 20 yards of this number. That list includes a pair of Super Bowl QBs and one who needs to buy a ticket to see the Big Game – Tom Brady (212-1), Joe Burrow (199-1) and Daniel Jones (196-0).
Carson’s Comedy Classics (woeful games) have been numerous over the last three seasons, and this one has the stink of Wentz failure written all over it.
Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Houston Texans haven’t been able to stop anybody on the ground this season, including Jonathan Taylor (31-161-1), the combination of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon (25-122) and Khalil Herbert (20-157-2).
Opponents have realized that they can control tempo and game flow by running the ball a lot. The Chargers like to pass more than they like to run, but this defensive deficiency should make them more balanced, because teams have been too successful when they attack the Texans defense on the ground.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff UNDER 255.5 passing yards (-115)
For some reason, people are under the belief that the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions are somehow going to morph into pass-happy offenses. Pete Carroll wants to run the ball as much as possible, and the Lions are without Goff’s two most dynamic weapons – RB D’Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
It will take big plays or 30 completions to hit this number, and without his go-to, home run guys that won’t be an easy number to surpass.
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 95.5 rushing yards (-115)
Any time Taylor’s Over/Under is less than 100 yards, it has my interest. The Titans have allowed every opponent this season to top 95 yards, including Saquon Barkley (18-164-1), the Bills’ running game (24-101), and the Raiders’ backfield (19-96).
With the glacial Matt Ryan at QB, Taylor is going to get almost every rushing attempt. This game has all the earmarks of a head-to-head battle between Taylor and Derrick Henry – the last two NFL rushing champions. If both continue to do what they’ve done in their careers, they could combine for as many rushing attempts as there will be passes.
Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-115)
In three career games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Jeudy has averaged 23.3 yards per reception, piling up 268 receiving yards. His individual game yardage totals have been 68, 140 and 60, and he did that with quarterbacks with less talent than Russell Wilson.
In a game the Raiders have to win, they’re going to pull out all the tricks. If the Broncos have to play from behind, it only adds fuel to Jeudy again posting yardage numbers in the 60s at a minimum, not the 40s.
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