Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 9
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-7-0
All-time record: 19-38-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
This train wreck continues … the absolute worst part of it for me has been two of the last three weeks I simply chose the wrong player. In Week 6, I strongly debated taking Tyler Boyd, and last week I stupidly ignored my gut and took Jamaal Williams over Gabe Davis. So, let’s see if I can pick the right guy (Royce Freeman is my other strong lean) and put another W on the board …
New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Washington Commanders
I fully recognize this one is about as risky as they come, and it doesn’t do me any favors from the W-L perspective, because the odds definitely are stacked against this one coming to fruition.
Henry has not topped 9.1 PPR points or scored since Week 2, and the former Los Angeles Charger has no more than three targets in the last month of play. The chemistry with Mac Jones just hasn’t been there, and that’s a major concern in this recommendation.
However, necessity is the mother of invention, and the idea here is the loss of wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (knee) as well as the utter void of connection between Jones and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots are desperately in need of someone to step up in the passing game, so there’s a clear path to an increased target share for Henry.
Washington has totally flopped vs. the position in the last month. This matchup rates in the top eight for receptions and yardage per game as well as ease of TDs in relation to catches allowed since Week 3. Tight ends have averaged 5.8 receptions, 59.8 yards, and a TD every 7.3 grabs, good for 16.6 PPR points an outing. Only three teams have allowed more fantasy points per game in both primary scoring systems, and this is the fourth-most efficient matchup of the week.
All four of the TDs against Washington have come in the last four weeks. In that time, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and Darren Waller all posted at least 136 PPR points, with the New York Giant finishing with 22.8 as the high-water mark. Washington presents a matchup rating that is 66.7% higher than the league average in the last three weeks and 31.7% better in the most recent five games.
Henry isn’t going to be a volume guy in this one, but he certainly could tack on another touchdown to that list, and a pair of scores isn’t out of reach. Play him if you’re backed into a corner, but this likely will be an all-or-nothing result.
My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD (15.8 PPR points)
