Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-4-0
All-time record: 19-35-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
It’s nice to get one in the win column, but building momentum is the goal. Last week, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert was the choice, and he far exceeded my expectations. This week, we’re going to look in a different direction after focusing on the tight end position the last few games.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford vs. Arizona Cardinals
Through five games, the 35-year-old has averaged a single touchdown pass and finally threw multiple TD strikes last week for the first time in 2023. Stafford has managed at least 300 yards in 60 percent of his contests this season, and his fantasy floor is 17.8 as QB16 in Week 1, which actually wasn’t the lowest ranking for him. He finished QB21 a few weeks later, despite scoring more points. With that established, Stafford hasn’t finished better than QB15 this year and has only 21.4 points as his personal best in 2023.
Los Angeles enjoyed the return of star receiver Cooper Kupp in Week 5, and he didn’t miss a beat after being unavailable since Week 10 last season. Not only did that help, but rookie phenom Puka Nacua remained highly involved and quite effective. Third receiver Tutu Atwell offers another dangerous outlet, running back Kyren Williams is versatile enough to help in the passing game, and tight end Tyler Higbee is capable of chipping away over the middle.
This week, the matchup favors passing over running — and especially so to the wide receiver position, which is LA’s offensive strength. Kupp, Nacua and Atwell should be a viable three-deep weapons cache for fantasy purposes, and that won’t happen without Stafford being no worse than solid.
Given the opponent, however, he has a prime opportunity to be much better than that … the Cardinals have given up the sixth-most passing yards per game (274.4) and touchdowns at the 14th-easiest rate in relation to number of balls thrown. Only two defenses have yielded more points per offensive play by a quarterback.
Arizona has given up three rushing scores to quarterbacks in 2023, that’s in no way Stafford’s game at this stage of his career. While he rushed for a pair of scores in the 2021 playoffs, he has a single ground TD to his name since the 2016 season concluded. But even when the trio of rushing touchdowns are removed, this is still the seventh-best matchup to exploit.
The Cardinals could be without their two best defensive backs, Despite averaging a respectable 3.0 sacks per game on 35 attempts faced, this defense has allowed the fifth-highest offensive scoring rate per drive and the 17th-lowest percentage of drives ending in a turnover. Arizona is tied for the third-lowest blitz percentage and second-worst pressure rate — the likely difference-maker for Stafford behind an offensive line that has allowed the 10th-lowest pressure rate.
My projection: 303 passing yards, 6 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT (23.18 points)
