Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6
Tracking my predictions: 2-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
Last week’s projection of Derek Carr was 19 percent greater than the actual result, but that was still just enough to squeak inside of the threshold for a “win” … truthfully, it feels a little dirty since he was just average in relation to the field, but at least it wasn’t a total disaster of a forecast. Carr finished QB11 for the week.
For Week 6, we head to the NFC and switch the focus from quarterback to wide receiver.
WR Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders
A blossoming rookie in 2020, the Tulane speedster emerged as a legitimate threat a year ago. Through the first five games of 2022, however, it has been like we’ve witnessed an entirely different player. The Bears changed offensive systems in the offseason, and quarterback Justin Fields is the full-time starter this go-around. Some things just take time to develop, and this has the feeling of such a situation.
The results really haven’t been there, aside from a Week 2 line of 4-94-0. Mooney has not drawn more than six targets in any contest, and he failed to secure more than four balls. On the positive side, he went from five targets in total over the first two games to no fewer than five in each of the last three weeks, maintaining a 24 percent target share in that stretch.
For Washington’s side of this equation, the matchup couldn’t be much brighter. The Commanders have given up a statistical profile that pairs hand-in-glove with Mooney’s style of play. The position has averaged 15.7 yards per catch vs. Washington, which ranks second, and no defense has given up more fantasy points per reception. Allowing only the 15th-most grabs has translated to the fifth-greatest yardage total. Best of all, it has taken an average of a mere 8.9 receptions before the opposing receiver finds the end zone. Just two teams have given up more touchdowns overall and also in terms of efficiency against.
There are not too many receiving options that present such a boom-or-bust outlook, and Mooney’s season should finally start to take off vs. a defense that is handing out fantasy points like Halloween candy. With four teams on bye, including the likes of WRs Davante Adams, Robert Woods, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and Brandin Cooks, added gumption is necessary for lineup decisions.
My projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 97 yards, 1 TD (20.7 PPR fantasy points)
