Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 2
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-1-0
All-time record: 18-32-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
In the opening week, New Orleans Saints wideout Michael Thomas was selected for this space, and it started off like the prediction of 20.1 PPR points was going to be a smashing success. Tennessee then directed some attention his way to slow the veteran, resulting in the projected line being higher 45 percent higher than the actual results. It was a disaster from a points-scored perspective, but I wasn’t too far off after nailing his number of targets and being one catch away. The lack of a touchdown, which went to WR Rashid Shaheed, really is what killed the forecast.
Not a great start. But, as the name of this series indicates, we’re talking gambles and not locks, so it’s going to happen — and a lot.
Onward, we go….
WR K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Last year, Osborn caught only two passes on as many targets for 25 yards and no touchdowns in the Week 2 trip to Philadelphia. He was the third receiver in that contest behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and the Vikes didn’t have tight end T.J. Hockenson on the roster yet. None of the receivers last year did anything of note, and Minnesota lost 24-7.
In tonight’s contest, however, there’s a marked difference from Philly’s side. The defense will be without the man lining up across from Osborn, cornerback James Bradberry (concussion), as well as safety Reed Blankenship (ribs). Furthermore, standout defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (ribs) may not be available to put pressure on quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Minnesota lost to a Tampa Bay team that most prognosticators would consider to be an inferior squad, and just about anyone with functional eyesight will rightfully say Philadelphia has the better roster this week. The Vikings are awful on defense, and that’s going to lead to Cousins hurling the ball north of 45 times in this one.
Jefferson will get his, and Hockenson is poised for a strong game, but Osborn should make for the stronger play over rookie Jordan Addison, who scored a wide-open touchdown in Week 1. The rookie may have found the end zone and received the fantasy praise, but he and Osborn each had six targets.
With all of the effort and attention sent toward JJ and Hock, this one has the makings of an Osborn game. We saw it happen a few times each of the last two years, including five of the last six contests a year ago. Jefferson posted three of his worst 2022 games in that stretch, and Hockenson wasn’t able to top 6.5 PPR points two of them.
If you’re in a pinch and want to chance it on an exploitable matchup, or need to save a few DFS bucks, give Osborn a whirl from the flex spot.
My projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD (16.6 PPR points)
