Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 1
Tracking my predictions: 0-0-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2022 record: 5-12-1
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
We’re back for another NFL season, and attempting to shake off a 2022 slump begins with a former star receiver whose career has taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent years. This article series wasn’t designed to include household fantasy football names, but every so often an exception is granted.
The main reason for this week’s inclusion is that we haven’t seen much of note from this veteran in the last two seasons, and we’re also talking about a No. 4 fantasy receiver by draft placement.
WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans
Week 3 of the 2022 season was the last time Thomas was on the field catching passes in a meaningful game, and he wasn’t faring poorly at all in his trio of appearances last year. Thomas caught three touchdowns in that span, including two in the first outing of 2022, securing a line of 16-171-3 on 22 targets altogether. This production, while from a small sample size, extrapolates to nearly 91 receptions, 973.7 yards, and 17 touchdowns over a full season. The scoring stat is an unrealistic number to forecast over 18 weeks, but something in the realm of 90-900-10 is a viable floor this season, presuming he actually stays healthy.
Thomas will get a serious upgrade at quarterback in Derek Carr, the best signal caller with whom he has worked since Drew Brees’ retirement. At age 29, Thomas still has the skills to work over defenses with his excellent route running and elite hands, even if the injuries have robbed some athleticism.
Receiver Chris Olave will steal his share of looks from Thomas, but that’s not all bad. No one should be banking on the 149-catch version of Thomas from 2019, and it’s pretty obvious no one is based on his ADP of WR43 this year. Having a dynamic receiver, like this second-year pro, keeps defenses from overloading Thomas’ side of the field. Tight end Juwan Johnson working the middle also presents a decision for defenders, particularly in the red zone. The last notable situation from the personnel side of the equation is no Alvin Kamara not only frees up extra targets but suggests more passing volume.
Tennessee was the worst defense against wide receivers in 2022, and it’s difficult to point to any clear upgrades that should be immediately felt in Week 1. Not only is this a tremendous matchup in point-per-reception scoring, the Titans are awfully tough vs. running backs. The latter factor implies the Saints will turn to the air more often than usual. This notion is amplified by the aforementioned loss of Kamara via suspension.
It will be fair to get worried about the now-healthy Thomas if he cannot get off to a hot start in 2023 with such a prime matchup. Even though bye weeks aren’t yet a factor and he likely wasn’t drafted to start for your team, find a way to get the veteran into PPR lineups for Sunday’s contest.
My projection: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 81 yards, 1 TD (20.1 PPR points)
