In the time since I last wrote about betting lines for this weekend’s conference championship games — less than 24 hours ago — the spread for the AFC title game has flipped completely.
The slim one-point advantage the Kanas City Chiefs had over the Cincinnati Bengals is gone, and it’s the Bengals now favored by 1.5 points. The Chiefs are true underdogs, with their moneyline odds falling to +120. Cincinnati has -120 odds to win.
Previously, the teams’ moneyline odds were the same, creating a true pick’em for bettors. Now, people have an opportunity to get plus odds on a team that entered the postseason as the Super Bowl favorite.
There’s a reason for that, of course. The likeliest of all is Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury.
Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, which could severely limit his mobility if it doesn’t sideline him altogether. The Chiefs are preparing as if Mahomes will play, but if he’s unable to go, it’ll be backup Chad Henne under center for the home team.
There’s also the fact the Bengals have already proven they can beat the Chiefs — in Week 13 of this season and in last year’s title game — even with a healthy Mahomes.
