A few things changed for the Cincinnati Bengals this offseason. Tyler Boyd is now a Tennessee Titan. The defensive line swapped D.J. Reader for Sheldon Rankins and the offensive line replaced Jonah Williams with Trent Brown.
But, for the most part, this Bengals team looks a lot like the one that failed to make the playoffs last winter. That’s by design.
Cincinnati stayed afloat in the NFL’s toughest division, rallying to a 9-8 record despite a 1-3 start. More importantly, the Bengals did this after losing Joe Burrow nine-plus games into the season, turning Jake Browning — zero snaps in four NFL seasons before 2023 — into an above average quarterback in the process.
Seriously. In seven-plus games, Browning’s expected points added (EPA) per dropback were roughly the same as 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson:
Besides pointing out the flaws in EPA, that number points to the Bengals’ strength — and what could be their biggest weakness in 2024. One of head coach Zac Taylor’s attributes is his ability to trust his playmakers and assistant coaches to create winning strategies. But when he lost his biggest playmaker last season, offensive coordinator Brian Callahan threw Browning into the void and found a way for the career backup to thrive.
That meant a diet of motion and spread fields to maximize yards after catch from an arsenal capable of excelling through misdirection. Browning’s average throw distance (6.3 yards downfield) was slightly lower than Burrow’s (6.5), though a calf injury left him to linger in a slow start even longer than usual last year. The backup’s short-range accuracy was a boon, completing 73 percent of throws between zero and nine yards downfield but that wasn’t the key to his game (Burrow clocked in at 78 percent). Where he excellent was the intermediate range.
On throws between 10 and 19 yards downfield, Browning’s 67 percent completion rate put him alongside Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa at the top of the rankings. Burrow, on the other hand, completed less than half his throws in that same range.
So what does that tell us? That Callahan had a plan to create space and allow whomever was behind center to thrive with a few modest tweaks. And that his departure could be the void Cincinnati can’t fill in 2024.
Callahan will coach the Tennessee Titans this fall, hoping to bring his Fix-It Felix skills to Will Levis’ blown-out skyscraper. Promoted to fill his place is quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher, who began his Bengals career back when Marvin Lewis was head coach and has been the guy taking care of Joe Burrow since he was drafted in 2020.
That fits with the team’s “once we’re healthy, we’re fine” mentality. Cincy was in the midst of a 4-1 stretch with wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills before Burrow’s injury. The offense scored at least 24 points in four of those five games. This looked like the team that made it to Super Bowl 56 once again.
We know Pitcher’s job won’t be under scrutiny if the season begins slowly, because that’s sorta Cincinnati’s thing. The Bengals are 6-6 in the first four weeks of the season the last three years and 25-13 afterward. We also know a healthy Burrow will significantly lessen the challenge on his plate. Over the last three seasons, he’s been at least a top five quarterback with an argument to be made about top three status:
While some concerns emerged last season — 2023 was the first year in his career where the majority of his passing yards came from runs after the catch rather than distance where his balls were caught, for instance — many of those can be hand waved away by the calf strain that limited him early. The question is whether he can turn the clock back to 2021, where his completed air yards per attempt — a measure of both accuracy and the difficulty of a QB’s throws — peaked (4.5 yards downfield, third-best in the NFL and owing in part to a career-best 42 percent success rate on deep throws). Without Boyd as a veteran short-range target, 2024 could force him to return to those deeper targets, especially if Mike Gesicki’s seam-stretching routes take over the top spot at tight end.
Cincinnati gets the benefit of the doubt here. It’s the same on the other side of the ball, where defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo perpetually finds ways to coax the best from his players when they need it most. The Bengals have plenty of good players, but are light on defensive studs. The only defender to make the Pro Bowl in the last four years is Trey Hendrickson who, in fairness, has been invited each of the last three seasons.
That group ranks 17th in overall defensive efficiency in that stretch. It has only once finished ranked higher than 17th when it comes to points allowed. But flip the timeline over to the playoffs and Anarumo’s unit jumps to sixth out of the 28 teams to have seen at least one postseason game the last four years.
That’s a handful of words to say, yep, Cincinnati’s defense will likely be fine with Rankins instead of Reader and Vonn Bell approaching his twilight era. And, really, the point of this whole article is to say the Bengals in general were smart to run things back based on everything we know about this team under Taylor, Burrow and Anarumo.
The question is whether Callahan’s departure will leave a sizeable dent on the offense. Being able to build plays around Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and contract-year Tee Higgins gives Pitcher the chance to play his first season as an NFL coordinator on easy mode. Unfortunately, that’s about the only thing that will come easy in the AFC North this fall.
