It took 12 days for Australia to retain the Ashes on home soil 18 months ago, and while nothing so definitive has occurred here yet, only eight days into this series, it is starting to drift ominously the same way.
After three days of the Lord’s Test, the tourists are in control, 221 runs ahead with eight second innings wickets still in hand, firm favourites go 2-0 up in the series and leave Ben Stokes needing to lead the kind of comeback that has been conjured only once in the rivalry’s history.
Where England were wasteful, a brainless period on the second evening squandering a well-laid platform and setting a wobbly one for today’s dismal collapse, Usman Khawaja, in particular, was diligent, riding his luck at times, but showing the same blend of class and resolve as at Edgbaston to reach an early close unbeaten, with 58 of his side’s 132 for two.
England will not feel goosed quite yet, particularly in the knowledge that Australia have no Nathan Lyon to turn to in the fourth innings, the spinner on crutches with his series in doubt after injuring his calf on day two. There is the memory of Headingley 2019 to call on, and a few from last summer, too, when England won four games in a row chasing to kickstart the Bazball era. In the last of those, against India at Edgbaston, Stokes’s side reeled in a record 378 only three men down and looking like they could have chased anything. To win here and level the series, they may yet have to.
That is largely due to this morning’s continuation of yesterday’s slump, whatever sickness had come over England’s batters after tea not shaken by a good night’s sleep. With Lyon out, conventional wisdom would have put a premium on batting time and dragging Australia’s seamers into deep waters but instead England’s innings was wrapped up inside 90 minutes, the final six wickets falling for just 46 runs as Stokes fell to Mitchell Starc’s second ball of the day and Harry Brook joined an already infamous list of short-ball gullibles.
Australia’s lead was an improbable one, 91 runs and soon growing, despite the native weather gods continuing their bias as conditions once again swung the home team’s way. In battling through, did Australia do what England simply refuse to and leave ego out of it? Or was this theirs on full display? Pat Cummins prides his team on holding more humility than so many of its predecessors and had England shown anything like as much respect to circumstance this Test could look quite different.
With Josh Tongue’s latest dismissal of David Warner the sole breakthrough, by mid-afternoon, England needed lifting. Lord’s though, was flat, this ground, for all its history and tradition - and probably because of it - about as unpartisan a home venue as there is in world sport.
Stuart Broad, earlier pinged behind the jaw by a vicious Cameron Green bouncer, had no sense of theatre on which to thrive, though he did his best to create some of his own with three wild appeals against Marnus Labuschagne either side of tea. All three were ignored, the first two correctly, but Brendon McCullum’s raised finger on the balcony confirmed that on the third occasion the boy crying wolf had been right.
Even so, Labuschagne continues to look well short of his best, the already large gap between his achievements at home and away widening with each passing Test. His eventual dismissal, for an unconvincing 30, was almost as tame as some of England’s, James Anderson finally in the game as the batter poked him straight to Brook. The prize wicket of Steve Smith before close might have sharpened England’s belief but, while never comfortable in the gloom, the first innings centurion survived until drizzle and darkness came to his aid.
England will need all manner of forces to align in their favour if they are to fight back tomorrow.
