Throughout the World Cup pool stages, Ireland’s ruthless edge in attack has impressed me but it was their defensive resilience against Scotland which really caught my eye. The match was set up for them - all the pressure was on Scotland - but their execution on both sides of the ball was spot-on and that is a hallmark of Andy Farrell’s side.
To delve a little deeper on their work without the ball, it was the defenders on the edge – Mack Hansen and James Lowe – who really stood out. They are the main leaders and voices who enable Ireland to get width in their defence. On the back of that, across the field, Ireland have organisation and an ability to get up off the ground quickly.
You could see Scotland trying to move the point of attack, Finn Russell did look threatening at times, but the connection of Ireland’s defensive line made it so difficult to break down. Even when their line was breached they scrambled magnificently. They have the ability to “save tries”, even when it became unstructured and that forced Scotland to look for plan B, C and D.
If you sit and watch, what catches the eye is the microchat within the defensive system which is most impressive. Ireland have a collective ability to make reads in defence, to double defend plays where you have a lead line and a player out the back, to just make good decisions.
Ireland Hugo Keenan, Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe, Johnny Sexton (c), Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, Joe McCarthy, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Jimmy O’Brien.
New Zealand Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Richie Mo'unga, Aaron Smith; Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor, Tyrel Lomax, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Sam Cane (c), Ardie Savea.
Replacements: Dane Coles, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Samuel Whitelock, Dalton Papali'i, Finlay Christie, Damian McKenzie, Anton Lienert-Brown.
All of that means New Zealand will have to be really smart on Saturday. I anticipate that we’ll see them kicking more and that they’ll try to find as much backfield space as they can. Ireland are very tactical in the way that they come out of their own half. They won’t play much with the ball in hand unless they feel they’ve got the wood on their opposition’s defence and think they can run through them. But they’ll use Lowe’s left boot and both half-backs will exit their own half as efficiently as possible. The All Blacks will have to wait for the opportunities on transition – those opportunities will be gold when they come but they will have to be patient in waiting for them.
New Zealand do have the smarts, however, and they have the players to break down the Ireland defence. That means it will come down to whether their pack can keep relentlessly wearing down the Ireland defence. I’m not sure whether they have the ability to do that for 80 minutes but if they can, there’s more than enough quality in the backline to cause Ireland problems. It’s a different New Zealand side to the one that lost the series decider against Ireland in Wellington last year. Beauden Barrett was playing at fly-half that day and Scott Barrett wasn’t playing, but New Zealand are a side coming into form nicely. Their problem is that so are Ireland.
If cohesion is key to how Ireland defend, it’s also integral to the way in which they attack. They can be very impressive with their speed of ball but when they get slow ball, they’re very organised, they have three forwards off their No 9 with Johnny Sexton out the back in the diamond shape, all moving towards the line. That can give them four options against three defenders with the ability to play off first, second and third receiver and that forces the defence into making tough reads under pressure.
I thought that Scotland sat off a bit too much in defence. They seemed to sit and wait for Ireland to play, rather than to commit, but as soon as they did that they were losing the gainline to Ireland’s power forwards, who were generating quick ball for the backs. You then see Garry Ringrose digging into the line, linking up with Lowe, Hansen and Hugo Keenan, and that’s exactly where the first try came from.
The All Blacks will need to have a big think about how they set up to defend. South Africa showed a significantly different approach against Ireland, compared with Scotland. They tried to put Ireland under pressure with their line speed and enjoyed a degree of success. They forced errors and made it a lot harder to play. They made the pods off nine play early and put the skillset under pressure.
We’re talking about some of the best players in the world here but if you put them under pressure, take away their time and space, errors will come. The Springboks left that space on the edge and effectively said, “you’ve got to be good enough to get there”. We may see a bit more line speed from New Zealand to try and take away the time and space. If you sit back, you fall into the trap of chasing shadows.
I think they’ll have to work on it a little bit. South Africa are at one end of the spectrum - a blitz defence and even off turnovers or linebreaks they are off the line, taking away time and space no matter what. They’ll leave the edge and they’ll back their speed to cover and scramble. New Zealand are a bit more connected, they are aggressive but I wouldn’t put them in the same category as South Africa.
On Saturday, though, you might just find that they are a little bit more aggressive on the edges. They might say, “we’re going to cut off the inside and if you can throw a ball over the top, by all means do that but we’re going to scramble and we’re going to try and double D that ball in the air”. Because the ball in the air takes away time, it takes time for the ball to get there and it allows defenders to make the adjustment and work back. You might give up 10 yards but you’re not getting cut through the middle where Ireland seem to be strong, forcing teams to double defend.
New Zealand will also need to start fast because that’s the best way to silence the crowd. If they can do that, pick away at the stitches of the mental scars with Ireland never having been beyond a quarter-final, build up a lead and hang on, I can see the All Blacks edging it by two or three points. Alternatively, I can envisage the Ireland juggernaut overpowering New Zealand in the last quarter and running out to a 20-point win. Either way, it’ll be titanic, a quarter-final worthy of a final.
