There is a good reason Labor's first in a series of places for each region of Canberra was for Brindabella.
The southernmost electorate is likely to undergo the greatest shake-up with two incumbents resigning and a countback candidate vying to reclaim her seat at the ballot box.
The government will be eager to overcome the perception it has neglected the Tuggeranong Valley while it pursued light rail. The Liberals will take every opportunity to remind voters of this neglect. And remember, they have no chance of forming government without winning three seats in Brindabella.
After the 2016 election, the southernmost electorate was the only one where the Liberals held three seats. Labor held three seats in Ginninderra and Yerrabi.
In the current Assembly no party holds three seats in one electorate.
Tuggeranong is perhaps going to be the only battle solely between Labor and the Liberals. In the other electorates the two major parties will be looking to take a seat from the Greens.
It's going to be incredibly difficult for the Greens to retain Brindabella. They only just scraped in the last election with Johnathan Davis beating Labor's Taimus Werner-Gibbings by 83 votes.
Mr Davis' resignation in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct has damaged the Greens' chances in Brindabella. Laura Nuttall has not had enough time to build her profile unlike her attention-grabbing predecessor who ran several times to get a seat.
Independents are making a tilt in Brindabella but most of the minor parties appear to be focusing their efforts in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee.
Minor parties are also targeting the northern electorates but they don't seem to be making the same kind of push in Brindabella. That is why this will be such a key seat for Labor and Liberals.
Especially as both parties are losing popular standing members in Joy Burch and Nicole Lawder. The parties will be eager to build the profiles of their candidates.
Labor might show a bit more interest in the region while the Liberals will take every opportunity they can get to say Tuggeranong has been neglected.
