Well, folks. We’re finally here. It’s the final countdown. The NBA has hit the last stretch of games before it’s playoff time.
The doldrums on the way to the All-Star break are gone. No more talking about how to fix the game — all that is done. This is when teams begin to ramp up. They start to experiment with some of their best lineups that they’ve pocketed all season long and really start to shape their individual identities for the playoffs.
But everyone in the league isn’t a contender, though. Most teams don’t actually have a shot at winning a title this season. Only a handful can actually claim to be in that conversation.
By my estimation, there are 8 of them. Let’s dive into all of them and talk about what we should be watching for as the season winds down.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have consistently been the NBA’s best team through the entirety of the season so far. Through all the 3-point variance they’ve seen and the struggles with injury, there’s always been someone to step up in the next person’s place and do the job just as well.
They’ve got incredible point guard depth between Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brodgon. They also have amazing length defensively between their wings. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are elite as a combination.
Once they get their health together, the sky is the limit.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the hottest team in the NBA over the last month or so. The Bucks are 14-1 over their last 15 games with a 9.3 net rating — only the Cavaliers are better at 9.5.
Giannis Antetkounmpo’s sheer dominance has been a huge help. The dude looks like an MVP again. Khris Middleton has also returned back to the lineup as a more consistent fixture and is rounding back into game shape. He’s not shooting the ball from deep as well as he could, but that will come with time.
The Bucks are gaining ground on Boston as the best team in the East and could be clicking at the right time.
Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid has been unstoppable this year. On the block, he’s only behind Nikola Jokic in points per possession generated on post-ups at 1.15.
But where he’s really shining this season is in the pick-and-roll with James Harden. Embiid is generating a scorching 1.20 points per possession and a league-leading 8.1 points per game. That’s a lot. The 76ers just don’t run it as frequently, which has not only upset fans but has also miffed GM Daryl Morey quite a bit.
This is probably a weapon Philly is saving for the postseason. We’ll see a lot more of it very soon.
Cleveland Cavaliers
There are lots of people out there who aren’t really taking the Cavaliers seriously as contenders. In a few months, there’s a good chance they’ll shock you. This team is legitimately built to contend.
Their backcourt in Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell is incredibly dangerous. They are elite at maybe the most coveted skill in playoff basketball today — pull-up jump shooting. Garland and Mitchell are both masters.
As a team, the Cavaliers have a 50.1 effective field goal percentage on pull-up jumpers, per NBA.com’s stats tool. Only the Brooklyn Nets were better and they just traded away two of the best pull-up shooters the NBA has seen in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Couple their elite offensive guards with their league-best defense and you’ve got a legitimate contender. This is the same formula the Warriors used to beat the Celtics last season. We see how it worked out for them.
Phoenix Suns
Having this team on this list feels weird because we haven’t truly seen it yet. Not the proper version of it.
The Suns, in general, are catching their stride once again. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a top-10 defense in the league. But the obvious kicker here is they’re adding Kevin Durant to that equation, which is a huge plus.
Yes, they’ve given away important depth in Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, but their top four in Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Durant is the most talented four-man combo in the league. Plus, there are enough good players on the roster that — if one of their starters is in at all times — they’ll be just fine. This team is going to be dangerous.
Denver Nuggets
The league’s MVP race only involves two players right now and Nikola Jokic is one of them.
Having this guy on your team is going to give you a shot in just about any series you play, but the roster around him is actually healthy and present this season, too. Jamal Murray is there to add a bit of extra shot creation that the Nuggets desperately needed last year.
And it’s not just Murray taking and making shots — he’s efficient with it. Over his last 20 games, he’s averaging 23.7 points per contest and is nearly in that 40-50-90 range give or take a couple percentage points in free throws and overall shooting from the floor.
Everyone is watching the Suns, but the Nuggets are poised to make a deep playoff run.
Memphis Grizzlies
Ja Morant says he’s still good in the West, but it feels like his confidence should be a bit shaken right now.
The Grizzlies are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and their offense ranks 24th in that stretch. The problem is they’ve played much of that stretch without Steven Adams, who is an elite offensive rebounder and creates so many extra possessions for the Grizzlies by rebounding 17% of their misses, per NBA.com’s stats tool.
Adams still isn’t close to returning to the lineup from his PCL injury. Once he returns and gets things clicking, though, the Grizzlies have a legitimate shot.
Los Angeles Clippers
The thing with the Clippers will always be the health of their superstars. When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both play, they’re a legitimate championship squad.
George and Leonard’s 11.5 net rating together is among the best two-man combinations from across the league with at least 600 minutes played. The problem is it’s only appeared in 28 games this season. You’d hope that number would be a lot closer to 40 games, at the very least.
If they get good health out of those two to end the season, though, the Clippers are in business.
