WASHINGTON _ Election Day is now less than six months away, but most Americans have set aside a presidential campaign that's been upended by the coronavirus pandemic.
While the coronavirus has tossed the mechanics of politicking in flux for the foreseeable future, leaders in both parties and officials with President Donald Trump's and Joe Biden's campaigns are surveying a relatively stable political battlefield that will be concentrated largely in just about a half dozen states: the former "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the traditional swing states of Florida and North Carolina, and the emerging battleground of Arizona.
The common thread among these six states at the center of the general election map is that they were all carried by Trump in 2016, and that the president currently trails in many of the early polls there, leaving him mostly on defense heading into November.
"Those are the core," said Brian O. Walsh, the president of the pro-Trump super PAC America First Action, who downplayed the relevance of the current polling trends. "None of us should be shocked. Battleground states are acting like battleground states. My message is, everybody just calm down, these are battleground states. This is all just beginning."
Biden can become the first challenger to oust a sitting president in 28 years if he holds all the states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and flips Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
With its 29 electoral votes, Florida is a continuously enticing prize for Democrats where Biden is showing early strength. Trump has almost no chance of reelection without it and the last three presidential races there have each been decided by less than 3 percentage points.
The Biden campaign is still weighing the efficiency of a significant Florida investment, with David Plouffe, President Barack Obama's former campaign manager, warning it's "a $100 million decision" for the likely Democratic nominee that needs to be made now.
"It's very tempting to go take Florida away from him, because then he's just done," said Jim Messina, Obama's 2012 campaign manager. "If you believe the polling, you almost have to go in. It's just super hard. The other problem Democrats have is, traditionally the way you win Florida is a massive field effort. Are we going to be able to do a massive field effort? What are the rules going to be? Can you knock on doors?"
Out west, Democrats are increasingly raising Arizona as a possible failsafe for Biden if Trump holds onto Wisconsin. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a third-term congressman from Phoenix and Biden surrogate who has encouraged the campaign to invest there, predicted the former vice president would win his state by 3 to 4 points on the power of a rising Hispanic electorate and moderate Republican women.
"I think you're going to see Arizona swing hard to the Democratic column," Gallego said.
And North Carolina, which Trump carried by 3 percentage points in 2016, is showing some signs of a Democratic resurgence. The Democratic governor looks to be in a strong position for reelection and the party fielded a competitive candidate for a U.S. Senate race on track to be the most expensive in the nation.
Still, some Democrats acknowledge North Carolina may be the toughest of the six to win back. One Trump adviser called it "a tease for Democrats nationally." Since 1976, Obama is the only Democrat who has ever carried it, by less than half a percentage point in 2008.
While more than a dozen states are regularly discussed as potential battlegrounds, both sides agree the results in the core six will attract the abundance of time, resources and attention.
Given the Trump campaign has a quarter of a billion dollars on hand, it is likely to also contest New Hampshire, Minnesota and perhaps Nevada, all of which Clinton carried four years ago.
Biden may be tempted by polls showing him within single digits of Trump in the GOP strongholds of Texas and Georgia. He's also off to an early lead in Ohio, a state that often served as a national bellwether but has trended towards the GOP in recent years that Trump allies are monitoring closely.
But onerous fundraising conditions under the pandemic will likely constrain Biden's available opportunities, at least at the outset.
"It's a huge challenge and going to force the campaign to be even more intentional about where they spend money because resources are going to be limited," said Meg Ansara, who headed battleground state operations for Clinton in 2016.
