The NFL salary cap is rising. That isn’t news; it happens every year.
The 2024 NFL salary cap, however, is rising by more than 13 percent. That’s news, because it’s never happened before.
An influx of revenue means teams will have more money to spend on player contracts than ever before. While early cap estimates clocked in at around $242 million for 2024, the league crashed over that threshold with a $255.4 million spending limit. That’s nearly $31 million more than the 2023 cap, which itself was a $16.6 million and 7.9 percent increase over 2022’s figure.
This means free agency is going to be more of a feeding frenzy than ever before.
More on the salary cap increase per league memo – pic.twitter.com/nuqW5SwNGP
— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) February 23, 2024
This is a spending boom that would teeter on a bubble if the NFL weren’t such an ever-expanding juggernaut. Franchises will have a ton of money to spend and the comfort that any large salaries attached will only look smaller as the cap continues to grow.
2024’s inflated cap won’t change the way the league does business. It’ll be a boon for the players hitting this year’s marketplace (except for maybe running backs who will still be underpaid) but ultimately business as usual. So let’s see who benefits the most from an unprecedented salary cap bump.
1
Winner: 2024's free agents
Let’s start with the obvious. Players fortunate enough to hit free agency in 2024 are going to see a significant increase in their contract value. New contract records were going to be set against a $242 million cap. Now they’ll be commonplace.
Nick Bosa, for example, is the league’s highest paid edge rusher at $34 million annually. Players like Brian Burns and Josh Allen could top that despite not playing at Bosa’s level. Even if they don’t, they feel like a lock to make more than the $28 million and change T.J. Watt is getting each year.
Tee Higgins now has the latitude to ask for $30 million per season. Jaylon Johnson has the leverage to become the richest cornerback in history. A dramatic rise in the salary cap means big raises for players. That’s a minimal shift in the tides for young players and veteran depth options and a tsunami for established stars.
2
Winner: Teams that spent big in 2021 and 2022
Well, well, well, Jacksonville Jaguars. Guess whose four-year, $72 million contract for Christian Kirk doesn’t look nearly as expensive now?
Kirk fulfilled his end of the bargain by rising up for a playoff team in his first year as a Jag. He’ll have the chance to be the team’s WR1 again next fall but his $18 million annual salary will likely put him in the middle of the pay scale thanks to another healthy market of free agent receivers.
He’s not alone. Joel Bitonio and Joe Thuney make $16 million each year after signing big 2021 extensions to hold down the interior of their respective offensive lines. They were already underpaid relative to their positions, but now they’re set to make less than pending free agents like Robert Hunt or Kevin Dotson.
If you paid up for an established star two or three years ago, those massive contracts are going to look like bargains in 2024.
3
Winner: Chris Jones
Jones didn’t find the long term contract for which he’d hoped after the 2022 season. He balked at the idea of being franchise tagged and held out for the first game of the season as he and the Kansas City Chiefs worked out a modest, performance-based raise for 2023.
This was a high risk bet on himself. It paid off. Not only did Jones thrive in another double-digit sack season, he ascended to a place as arguably the league’s top interior defensive lineman. He was a vital cog in the NFL’s second-ranked defense. His pressure twice erased touchdowns in what turned out to be one-possession postseason wins, including in Super Bowl 58.
give Chris Jones all the money. saved 6 points from 25 yards away pic.twitter.com/ig9EcXs4CL
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) February 12, 2024
Now he heads into what could be the last massive multi-year contract of his life against the backdrop of the biggest spending spree in league history. Aaron Donald’s three year, $95 million contract extension in 2022 is the richest any defensive tackle has ever signed. Jones is in position to top it.
4
Loser: Players being franchise tagged in 2024
The franchise tag assigns players the average value of the five highest-paid players at the designated veteran’s position for a single year. That leads to handsome short-term deals, but it also lags a year behind the gaudy spending of the current free agent marketplace.
The franchise tag for a wide receiver, for example, will cost an estimated $20.7 million in 2024. But with a robust market of wideouts available this spring and plenty of money to throw around, the same player staring down a franchise tag could have a market value of $30 million annually. We already talked about how Brian Burns is in position to ask for a deal that challenges Nick Bosa’s $34 million annual salary, but the Carolina Panthers could tag him for $20.2 million.
Expect more holdouts than usual if the gap between this year’s franchise tag numbers and the average contract value handed out in free agency goes from bay to gulf.
5
Winner, sort of: Players being franchise tagged in 2025
It will depend on the position, but a rising tide of salaries in 2024 should make the 2025 franchise tag tenders signficantly more expensive — and potentially push more teams into long term deals. Of course, that’s only a benefit if next year’s cap doesn’t show similar growth.
6
Winners: The Washington Commanders, New England Patriots and Chicago Bears
Each of these teams now has more than $80 million in projected cap space to spend. Each is in the midst of a rebuild, though the Bears — fresh off a 7-10 season, with the top overall pick in their grasp and the potential to trade either it or quarterback Justin Fields — are in the best shape by far. Bumping up the salary cap means more expensive free agent signings. These franchises can afford it, even before taking cost-saving measures.
7
Winners: The Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers
Each of these teams came into Friday morning over the league’s estimated salary cap. By the time the 2024 actual cap was announced, they were in compliance.
For Green Bay, this extra spending room could mean retaining a key veteran like Jaire Alexander or David Bakhtiari. For the Seahawks its some extra spending room for first year head coach Mike Macdonald. The 49ers may now have the room to keep Brandon Aiyuk in red and gold without jettisoning any vital players. And the Steelers can spend this money on some low-wattage veterans and go 9-8 regardless.
8
Loser: The New Orleans Saints
Even with a $255 million salary cap and after adding voidable years to Derek Carr’s bloated contract, the Saints remain an estimated $40 million over the 2024 spending limit. Over the Cap projects they’ll be the only team to be over the 2025 salary cap in a year where all other 31 teams could have more than $20 million in cap space — and New Orleans isn’t just slightly in the red, it’s got more than $300 million in salary obligations that year.
General manager Mickey Loomis will restructure his way back into compliance, pushing payments down the road with the assurance that salary cap will keep rising and the Saints can continue to rob Peter in order to pay Paul. But New Orleans won’t be able to throw cash at many big name free agents this spring — and with a winnable NFC South staring the team in the face, that’s a problem.
