For this week’s picks we’re going with a pair of tight ends to surpass their numbers, a pair of running backs not hitting their projected numbers, and the revenge play of the year from the league’s most dynamic wide receiver.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Indianapolis Colts RB Zack Moss UNDER 43.5 rushing yards (-120)
Moss has been a boon for the Colts while Jonathan Taylor was on injured reserve, as well as working his way back into playing shape. Taylor has been back for four games, and it looks like it is time for him to take over the primary workload in the backfield because of his big-play ability. Against the Carolina Panthers, the Colts may end up running the ball a lot, but Taylor is just too good to remain in a time share, and this should be the first week that Moss fully reverts to the secondary option.
4
Chicago Bears TE Cole Kmet OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
A tight end is an inexperienced quarterback’s best friend. Last week against the Chargers, Tyson Bagent locked in on Kmet, completing all 10 passes he threw his way for 79 yards. Against the Saints, the Bears may have to throw 40 times to stay close. If that happens, it’s hard not to imagine a decent percentage of those passes coming Kmet’s way.
3
Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews scores a TD (+125)
The Ravens have made it a priority to bring in wide receivers in the draft and free agency to increase the potency of the passing game, yet Andrews still is the primary target when the team gets into scoring position. Of the nine touchdown passes Lamar Jackson has thrown, six of them have gone to Andrews. With Seattle likely to bring enough scoring punch to force the Ravens to keep pace, when Jackson gets close to the goal line, Andrews is likely going to be his first option more pass plays than not.
2
Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard UNDER 53.5 rushing yards (-120)
For years the Cowboys have been one of the most productive rush offenses in the league, but injuries up front have made things extremely difficult for Pollard. He hasn’t hit this O/U number in the last four games. He has been averaging just 11.5 carries a game in that span, and the Cowboys have shown the willingness to abandon the run. If they fall behind the Philadelphia Eagles early, it will become a pass-heavy game that comes at the expense of Pollard and the running game. Even if Dallas stays close, the Eagles are allowing only 66 rushing yards per game to opposing teams, which doesn’t bode well for a guy in a slump.
1
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 91.5 receiving yards (-115)
I kicked myself last week for playing Hill and taking the Under as he essentially had it covered with one big pass. This week, we’ll find out if this was a good bet early, as Hill faces the Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany, in a morning game stateside. Andy Reid convinced himself the Chiefs’ passing offense could thrive without Hill. This is Hill’s first chance to get a shot back at his former team, and you can bet plays will be dialed up for him early and often. He will get shots deep and has motivation to show his former team how dangerous he is and the mistake they made.
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