We’re in Week 11 and with each passing week, more teams are going to join the list that will start looking as much to next year as finishing off the season, so this week’s focus is on those who have the most to play for in a good way.
This week’s picks include a pair of NFC West quarterbacks hitting Under their projected numbers, a pair of the highest-volume receivers doing what they do best, and a running back snapping an eight-game scoreless streak.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford UNDER 255.5 passing yards
Stafford is coming back after missing the Rams’ last game, but he wasn’t lighting up the town before he went down. He hasn’t topped this number in the last four games he has played and the Seahawks are going to look to run the ball and take away any momentum the Rams build during the game. Stafford is a stationary target and is nearing the point of the next big hit being his last big hit, so taking the Over is always a little precarious.
4
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 74.5 passing yards (-110)
It’s a primetime game and Taylor Swift grew up in Pennsylvania. There’s no chance she’s not in attendance for the Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles, and there is a clear spike in Kelce’s productivity when she is in the stadium the game is being played. The Eagles are allowing 279 passing yards a game and, if the Chiefs are going to get anywhere close to that number, Kelce is going to have a solid percentage of it. The only way he shouldn’t hit this number is if he gets hurt.
3
Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard scores a touchdown (-105)
Pollard hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Why pick him to score? That number hasn’t been lost on the Cowboys. When Dallas is at its most effective, there is balance to the offense, and they have a storied history of running backs finishing off drives in close. Dallas is going up against the 1-8 Carolina Panthers, and the Cowboys have shown they don’t let up when they get a big lead. Dallas could score four or five touchdowns before all is said and done, and Pollard should get one of them.
2
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 258.5 passing yards (-115)
Purdy has thrown for 661 yards the last two games, but the 49ers are at their best when they’re grinding the clock and giving the ball to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel 25-30 times. The Buccaneers are still a playoff contender because their division is so weak, but this has all the earmarks of a game where the 49ers hold the ball for 35 to 40 minutes and grind their way to a comfortable win. That might make it difficult for Purdy to have a big passing day.
1
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 82.5 receiving yards (-115)
St. Brown hasn’t only surpassed this number in each of the last four and six of his last seven games, he has topped 100 yards in every one of them. He has never caught less than five passes in any game and is averaging more than eight receptions a game. A case can be made that he is the most consistent fantasy receiver in the league. When you’re betting on a player to hit an Over, consistency is what makes players elite.
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